#Bitcoin / Биткоин / BTCUSD 
Good day, colleagues! This is the picture I’ve got. I looked at H4, H1 and M30 – the picture is quite coherent. General context: we’re in a range and in a slow drift down after the May crash, the price has been spinning around 60,000–61,000 for several days. On H4 you can see how the price has been gradually losing momentum since the end of May, testing the 60,400–60,500 zone several times and now hanging around 60,580.
Waves and structure In terms of market structure – classic SMC. You can see how the big players have collected liquidity above several times (local highs on H4 and H1), then dumped it down, changing the character of the move. On M30 and H1 in recent days we see an attempt to form a local low after the price dropped deeply below the previous low. This could be the start of accumulation or just a trap for shorts.
In terms of waves on H4, a corrective wave is visible (possibly ABC or an extended one), where we are now in the last wave C. If we count from the May high, we are now somewhere around the 0.618–0.786 fib of the entire move down. This is a strong reversal zone.
Fib and key levels: Fibonacci from the last impulse down (from 62,000 to 58,000): the price is now bouncing from 0.5–0.618. Very often a rebound starts here. OB on H4 and H1 – clearly in the 60,400–60,500 area. The price has just tested it and bounced a bit. Liquidity pool above – 60,800–61,000. If we break it with volume – we’ll fly further up. Support below – 59,800–60,000 (there’s also an old OB and a daily level there).
Technical indicators 
RSI on all TFs is holding in the neutral zone 56–58, not overbought. MACD on H4 is still negative, but on M30 and H1 it has already started to turn (histogram is growing). Volumes on the last bounce on M30 are decent, that’s a plus.
Candlestick patterns On M30 and H1 at the end of the chart you can see a bullish engulfing candle after testing the lows. On H4 the last candle is a small body with a long lower wick, also hinting at buyer accumulation. Not a perfect engulfing, but in the context of the support zone it looks convincing.
What can change the trend? Positive: breakout of 60,800–61,000 with a retest. Consolidation above opens the way to 61,500–62,000 (the next Fibonacci level). Negative: loss of 60,400 and especially 60,000. Then we confidently go to test the 58,000 zone and lower – that’s where the crowd’s stops will be. Macro factors: as always, ETF flows, positioning of big players, rate news and correlation with Nasdaq. Right now the market looks tired of shorts, but without a catalyst we can chop around for another week.
My forecast (for the next 3–7 days): Most likely we’ll go up. First target 60,850–61,000, then with good volume 61,500–61,800. A bounce from current levels looks more likely than a new low. If we see a confident H4 or H1 close above 60,750 – you can add longs. Be careful, guys, Bitcoin loves fakeouts. I myself am in a small long from 60,450 with a stop below 60,100. Watch 60,800 – that’s the key level right now.
