USD/JPY H4 Timeframe: Based on the USD/JPY H4 timeframe chart, the medium-term trend remains bullish, despite a sharp correction from the peak price around 162.85 in the last few sessions. This correction follows a consistent rally since mid-May, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The recent decline brought the price down rapidly, approaching the 100-day Moving Average (MA 100) area, before a buying reaction finally emerged, pushing the price back up. This indicates that selling pressure did increase, but buying interest remained strong enough to maintain the main trend structure, maintaining a positive trend. From the Moving Average indicator, the 100-day MA remains above the 200-day MA. This arrangement is a classic signal that the medium-term trend remains bullish. Furthermore, both moving averages still slope upward, indicating that the upward momentum has not undergone a structural change. Although the price briefly broke through the 100-day MA due to aggressive selling pressure, subsequent candles managed to move back above the average area. This indicates that the 100-day moving average (MA) remains a relatively strong dynamic support level. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) remains unbroken, the likelihood of a continuation of the uptrend remains greater than a reversal to a bearish trend. Price movements also indicate that the correction is more likely to be profit-taking after a prolonged rally than a change in the overall trend direction. The sharp decline does reflect increased volatility, but the subsequent candlestick formation indicates a rejection of lower prices. The rebound from the area around the 100-day moving average (MA) indicates that market participants are still exploiting the weakening price as an opportunity to re-accumulate long positions.
In terms of horizontal support, the 160.04 area is the closest and most important support level. This level coincides with an area not far from the 200-day moving average (MA), forming a fairly solid support zone. If selling pressure increases again, this area has the potential to become a key bulwark in maintaining the bullish trend. If the 160.04 support level holds, the price will remain open for further upside. Below this level lies the next support level at 158.61. This area provides stronger support because it previously served as a consolidation point before the price resumed its upward movement. A break below this level would indicate that the bullish trend is losing its dominance in the medium term. Meanwhile, the first resistance level is located at 161.96. This level currently represents the closest barrier that must be broken through if USD/JPY is to resume its rally. Previously, this area served as support before being broken downward during the correction, transforming into resistance, in accordance with the principle of reversal of support and resistance. If the price successfully breaks through and maintains above 161.96, supported by strong volume and momentum, the opportunity to retest the main resistance area at 162.85 will increase. The 162.85 level itself was the highest peak formed before the sharp correction. Successfully breaking through this area will open up more room for upside and confirm that the bullish trend is gaining momentum again. In the short term, price movement will likely remain characterized by a consolidation phase between the 100-day moving average (MA) support area and the 161.96 resistance area. This phase is quite normal after an extreme movement. The market generally needs time to establish a new equilibrium before determining its next direction. As long as the price does not break through the 160.04 support area again, this trend can still be considered a healthy consolidation within an uptrend. Momentum also shows that selling pressure is starting to ease compared to the initial decline. The candlesticks formed after the rebound exhibit smaller bodies with relatively long lower wicks, indicating a buying response at the support area. This pattern often indicates that market participants are starting to reduce selling pressure and await confirmation of the next direction. Overall, USD/JPY technical analysis on the H4 timeframe remains bullish as long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and especially above the 200-day moving average (MA). The still-positive moving average structure indicates that the main trend has not changed. Horizontal support at 160.04 is a level that must be maintained to maintain the opportunity for an increase, while resistance at 161.96 provides initial confirmation for a continuation of the uptrend towards 162.85. As long as the price can hold above this support zone and gradually break through the nearest resistance, the opportunity for USD/JPY to continue its bullish trend in the next few trading sessions remains open. Conversely, if selling pressure again dominates, breaking through 160.04 and then followed by weakness below the 200-day moving average (MA), the potential for a deeper correction towards the 158.61 area will increase, so market participants need to be more cautious about possible changes in the medium-term trend structure.
