FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD Daily Technical Analysis The Daily chart shows that XAUUSD has recovered strongly after respecting the lower support region and is now trading around 4175, moving back into a key supply area that I have marked between approximately 4125 and 4210. The recent bullish candles indicate that buyers have regained short-term control after BOS 1D formed near the lower structure, but price is now approaching the RESISTANCE and LIQ ZONE where selling pressure may begin to increase. I believe this area will determine the next major direction because previous rejection from this zone confirms that liquidity remains above current price. The CONFIRM HIGH on the left side continues to act as an important reference, and unless buyers manage to produce a strong daily close above 4210, I expect the current recovery to face difficulty. The DAILY SUPPLY ZONE overlaps with the upper resistance, making this region even more significant. I also notice that bullish momentum has improved with consecutive green candles, yet the approach into supply without a fresh structural breakout means buyers are entering an area where profit-taking could emerge. If price briefly pushes above the current highs to collect liquidity before rejecting, that would fit the liquidity sweep scenario shown on my chart. I will closely monitor the reaction around 4200 to 4210 because any long upper wick or bearish engulfing candle inside this zone could confirm that institutional sellers are becoming active again. As long as price remains below the highlighted resistance band, I consider the current move a recovery within a broader corrective structure instead of a confirmed bullish trend reversal.

Looking ahead, my chart suggests that the preferred path remains a rejection from the LIQ ZONE followed by a decline toward the INTERNAL STRUCTURE around 4085 before another temporary rebound. If sellers successfully defend the DAILY SUPPLY ZONE, I expect price to gradually rotate lower and eventually target the major SUPPORT near 3951, which aligns with the projected bearish path. The INTERNAL STRUCTURE will be an important decision point because buyers may attempt another reaction there, but unless a higher high is established above the resistance zone, that bounce may only provide liquidity for another selling opportunity. I think market participants will also keep a close watch on upcoming US economic releases, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical developments, as these factors can significantly influence gold's volatility. Any improvement in US dollar strength or higher Treasury yields could support the bearish scenario from my chart, while renewed geopolitical uncertainty or weaker US data may temporarily extend the rally into the liquidity area before rejection occurs. I will remain patient instead of chasing the current bullish candles because the strongest confirmation, in my view, will come from price action inside the highlighted supply region. A confirmed rejection there would strengthen the probability of a move back through the INTERNAL STRUCTURE and eventually toward the 3951 SUPPORT, keeping the broader bearish outlook intact until the market proves otherwise with a sustained daily close above the resistance and LIQ ZONE.