FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD Daily Technical Analysis The Daily chart shows that EURUSD is attempting to recover after establishing a temporary base near the lower boundary of the SELL TREND CHANNEL, but the broader market structure continues to favor sellers until a confirmed breakout occurs. Price is currently trading around 1.1437 and has rebounded from the recent lows, although it is now approaching a significant confluence area where the SUPPLY ZONE overlaps with the SSL and the upper section of the descending channel. I believe this area between approximately 1.1435 and 1.1493 will be the most important decision point in the coming sessions because it combines previous selling interest with liquidity resting above recent highs. The earlier BOS 1D confirms that bearish momentum remains valid despite the current recovery, and the overall sequence of lower highs and lower lows has not been invalidated. I also notice that every previous rally inside the SELL TREND CHANNEL has eventually attracted fresh selling pressure, making the present bounce vulnerable unless buyers can produce a strong daily close above the channel resistance. From my perspective, the recent bullish candles represent a corrective move rather than a confirmed trend reversal. If price reaches the highlighted SUPPLY ZONE and begins printing rejection candles or long upper wicks, I will consider that as confirmation that sellers are defending the structure once again. The SSL positioned just above the current price further increases the possibility of a liquidity sweep before the market decides on its next directional move. As long as EURUSD remains inside the descending channel, I remain cautious about expecting a sustained bullish continuation because the dominant trend still favors the downside.

Looking ahead, my chart suggests that price may continue climbing toward the upper boundary of the SELL TREND CHANNEL to test the SUPPLY ZONE before sellers attempt to regain control. I will closely monitor how price reacts around 1.1493 because a failure to secure a decisive daily close above this level would strengthen the probability of another bearish leg within the existing channel. If rejection develops from this resistance area, the previous BOS 1D would continue supporting the broader bearish structure, opening the possibility for price to rotate back toward the middle and eventually the lower boundary of the channel. On the other hand, if buyers successfully break above both the channel resistance and the SUPPLY ZONE with strong momentum, that would weaken the current bearish outlook and increase the likelihood of a larger trend reversal. I think upcoming US economic data, Federal Reserve expectations, European Central Bank commentary, inflation figures, and employment releases will remain key catalysts for volatility in this pair. Any strengthening of the US dollar could encourage sellers to defend the highlighted resistance, while weaker US data or improving Euro sentiment could provide buyers with enough momentum to challenge the channel resistance. For now, I prefer to wait for confirmation instead of anticipating the breakout because the current technical picture still respects the descending structure shown on my chart. Until price proves otherwise with a sustained move above the SELL TREND CHANNEL and the SUPPLY ZONE, I continue to view rallies as corrective movements within the prevailing bearish trend rather than the beginning of a confirmed bullish reversal.