EUR/JPY H4 Timeframe 
Based on the EUR/JPY chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price action shows that the pair is still in a consolidation phase after experiencing fairly high volatility throughout the second half of June to early July. Unlike the uptrend that dominated in late May and mid-June, the latest price structure indicates that bullish momentum has started to weaken and the market is searching for a new equilibrium. This is reflected in the price movement around the blue 100-period Moving Average (MA 100) and the red 200-period Moving Average (MA 200). Both indicators have started to flatten and move closer to each other, indicating that the strength between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, so there is still no clear dominant direction. In the previous period, EUR/JPY managed to form a healthy uptrend with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, supported by the position of MA 100 being above MA 200. This condition reflected medium-term buyer dominance. However, after price reached a peak around 186.28, selling pressure began to increase, resulting in a fairly deep correction. The decline even pushed price down to near the 183.14 area before buying interest emerged and drove price back up. This sharp correction turned the trend structure more neutral because the series of higher highs was no longer continuing consistently. Currently, MA 100 has turned downward and has intersected price action several times, while MA 200 is moving relatively flat. The price position around these two moving averages shows that the market is in a transition phase. As long as price is unable to move steadily above MA 200, any upside attempts are likely to face selling pressure on each rally. Conversely, as long as price also fails to break the main support area, bearish pressure is still not strong enough to form a new downtrend. Therefore, the current technical condition is more indicative of a sideways pattern, with the market waiting for a new catalyst that can determine the next direction. From the horizontal support and resistance perspective, the 184.78 area is the nearest resistance currently being tested by price. This level coincides with the position of MA 200, making it the initial barrier for the ongoing recovery attempt. If price manages to break and consistently close above 184.78, the upside potential toward the next resistance in the 185.19 area will open up further. That resistance previously acted as an important consolidation point before the sharp decline, so it is expected to trigger renewed selling pressure if retested. If buying momentum can push price beyond 185.19, the next target lies in the 185.83 area, which is a major resistance before price potentially retests the peak around 186.28. On the downside, the first support is at the 184.27 level. This area has acted several times as a bounce point during the latest consolidation phase, so it plays an important role in maintaining the recovery potential. As long as this support holds, buyers still have a chance to sustain the rebound momentum. However, if selling pressure increases again and price closes below 184.27, the downside potential toward the next support around 183.69 will grow. This level is the area that previously became the starting point of a strong rebound, so it is expected to attract buying interest again. If that support also fails to hold, the next downside target is in the 183.14 area, which is a major support as well as the lowest point in the price action over the past few weeks. From a momentum perspective, price action shows that volatility is still quite high. This is evident from the formation of several candlesticks with long wicks, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Such conditions often appear when the market is waiting for directional clarity before forming a new trend. Therefore, confirmation of a break of support or resistance will be more important than just intraday moves. The fact that MA 100 and MA 200 are now almost parallel also shows that the previous trend momentum has weakened significantly. If in the next few sessions MA 100 starts to move higher again and successfully crosses MA 200 from below, this will be an early signal that a bullish trend is starting to re-emerge. Conversely, if MA 100 remains below MA 200 while price fails to hold the 184.27 support, bearish pressure could increasingly dominate and push price to extend its correction to lower areas. Overall, the technical outlook for EUR/JPY on the H4 timeframe remains in a neutral phase with a consolidative bias. The price structure has not provided clearly dominant bullish or bearish signals because price is still moving around MA 100 and MA 200. As long as price can stay above the 184.27 support and manage to break the 184.78 resistance, the upside potential toward 185.19 and then 185.83 remains fairly open. However, if the 184.27 support is convincingly broken, selling pressure is expected to increase again, targeting a decline toward 183.69 and then 183.14. Thus, these support and resistance levels become the main reference points for market participants in determining the direction of EUR/JPY over the next few trading sessions.
