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Trader Journals:::2026-07-06T00:53:41

CL/Crude Oil

#CL Timeframe weekly

CL/Crude Oil

Based on the #CL (Crude Oil WTI) chart on the weekly timeframe, the current price movement is still in a fairly strong corrective phase after the sharp rally that occurred at the beginning of 2026. The selling pressure dominating in recent weeks has pushed the price down significantly from the highs around 109.59 back to trading in the 68.30 area. This decline shows that the previously very strong bullish momentum has lost steam and the market is now in an evaluation phase to determine whether this correction is only temporary or the beginning of a larger trend reversal. From the Moving Average perspective, the current price is already below the 100-period Moving Average (MA 100) in blue. The break below MA 100 is a signal that the medium-term upside momentum has weakened significantly. In fact, MA 100 itself has started to turn down after previously having a fairly steep upward slope following the price rally in the first quarter of this year. This condition indicates that selling pressure still has a substantial influence on the direction of price movement in the medium term. Meanwhile, the 200-period Moving Average (MA 200) in red is still moving relatively flat to slightly upward. Interestingly, the price is currently very close to MA 200, making this area a very important technical zone. In many market conditions, the weekly MA 200 often functions as a long-term trend indicator as well as a strong dynamic support. If the price is able to hold above MA 200, then the ongoing correction can still be considered a retracement within a larger uptrend. Conversely, if the price closes consistently below MA 200, the probability of a long-term bearish trend reversal will increase significantly. From the price structure side, the rally that started early in the year pushed crude oil up very quickly, breaking through the psychological area of 100 dollars per barrel. However, after reaching strong resistance around 109.59, selling pressure began to increase. Several weekly candlesticks formed long upper wicks, reflecting that every attempt to move higher was followed by aggressive profit-taking. This condition eventually developed into a fairly sharp downtrend, causing the price to give back most of its previous gains. Referring to the horizontal support and resistance lines on the chart, the 69.29 area is the nearest resistance, currently slightly above price. This level previously acted as support that was eventually broken during the correction, so it has now turned into resistance. If the price is able to move back above this level and close there consistently, the probability of a recovery toward the MA 100 area will increase. The next resistance is around 83.20. This area is an important support that previously failed to hold when selling pressure intensified. Therefore, if a rebound occurs, this level is expected to become the first upside target as well as an area that could potentially trigger renewed selling pressure. If buying momentum is able to continue and break above 83.20, the upside potential toward the next resistance around 97.11 will open up further. This area was a fairly strong distribution zone before the price experienced a sharp decline. Next, the major resistance is in the 109.59 area, which is the peak of the last rally, before the price could potentially test the highs around 119.30. On the downside, the nearest support is in the 63.53 area. This level is important because it was the base of consolidation before the major rally started at the beginning of the year. As long as the price is able to hold above this area, the potential for a technical bounce remains open. However, if selling pressure increases again and breaks below 63.53, the next downside target will be the major support around 55.89. A break below this level would be a very negative signal because it would indicate that the entire major rally at the beginning of the year has been fully corrected and would open the door for the formation of a long-term bearish trend. From a momentum perspective, the decline in recent weeks has occurred with a fairly steep slope, indicating that sellers still have strong dominance. However, since the price is now approaching both the MA 200 and an important horizontal support area, selling pressure may start to slow down. In such conditions, the market usually enters a consolidation phase before determining a new direction. Price reaction to MA 200 will be the main factor in determining whether the market can build a recovery or instead continue to weaken. Overall, the technical analysis of #CL on the weekly timeframe still shows a medium-term bearish bias due to the price being below MA 100 and continuing to move closer to MA 200. However, the long-term trend has not completely reversed as long as the price is able to hold above the 63.53 support area and MA 200. If buyers manage to defend this area and push the price back above the 69.29 resistance, the potential for a rebound toward 83.20 remains quite open. Conversely, if the 63.53 support is convincingly broken, selling pressure is expected to continue toward 55.89, confirming a shift in market structure to a more bearish long-term outlook. Therefore, the next few weeks will be a very important period for the direction of crude oil prices, especially in testing the strength of the long-term support area that is currently under pressure.
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