FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

On Thursday, US nonfarm payrolls for June missed estimates by a large margin, coming in at 57K instead of 110K. The unemployment rate dipped lower, but primarily due to a decreased participation rate, which, at 61.5, is the lowest since March 2021. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate forecasts were immediately modified by the swaps market, and investors now anticipate a narrow 46% likelihood of a rate increase towards the end of the year. As a result, the US dollar plummeted, as evidenced by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is expected to close the week down 0.52%. The dollar's performance in relation to six other currencies is measured by the DXY, which is flat at 100.83. The non-yielding metal, which performs better in lower interest rate circumstances, is more appealing because the US 10-year Treasury yield is stable at 4.485 percent. In spite of the fact that gold is still rising. Momentum swung somewhat bullish, short-term, according to the relative strength index (RSI). Gold has the potential to surpass the crucial $4,200 mark on the upside. A downslope resistance trendline at roughly $4,225–$4,250 and the $4,300 mark are the next points of resistance above this region. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,402 is located above. For a bearish continuation, XAU/USD sellers need to drive spot prices below $4,100 ahead of testing the $4,050 and $4,000 psychological levels. A breach of the latter will expose the yearly low of $3,941, ahead of $3,900. Kevin Warsh, the next Fed chair, reiterated the Fed's commitment to containing inflation but did not offer any future direction.