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Trader Journals:::2026-07-07T03:37:48

EUR/USD

#EUR/USD

EUR/USD

Good day, colleagues! Yesterday there was a pretty good situation, let's sort it out. Technical picture and patterns after yesterday’s move: Yesterday (on Monday, July 6) the market drew a decent bullish impulse on H1. The price confidently broke out upward from the previous accumulation shelf, broke through resistance and is now consolidating at the 1.1438 level. H1 patterns: Yesterday’s move finally broke the local bearish structure. Right now a bullish flag or pennant is forming right at yesterday’s highs. The price is rubbing against the upper Bollinger Band, the moving averages (MA) are lined up right under the chart and pointing up – this is a strong bullish trend on the hourly. RSI is holding at 55.51, there is still plenty of room for growth. MACD gave a bullish cross and fixed above the zero line. Bigger picture D1: On the daily chart the picture is very telling. Before that we had a strong dump, the price fell all the way down to 1.1348. But I paid attention to the candle wicks from below – there was an aggressive buyback there. Now on D1 a huge “Double Bottom” pattern is forming. Yesterday’s daily candle closed with confident growth, confirming a reversal from the support zone at 1.14207. MACD on the daily is deep down, but the blue line is already starting to bend upward toward the signal line. View through the prism of SMC, Waves and Ichimoku:

EUR/USD

SMC (Smart Money): On the daily (D1) we saw a classic liquidity grab below the low at 1.1348. The big player collected the stops of all the longs, activated orders and poured liquidity back in. Yesterday’s move on H1 is a clean BOS of local resistance. Right now the price is testing the zone of a new bullish Order Block around 1.1420. From an SMC perspective, you definitely want to look for longs on pullbacks here. Wave analysis: Apparently, the global wave C (or a large corrective three-wave move down) ended at the spike to 1.1348. The rise that started afterward is the birth of a new impulsive First wave of a higher degree. Yesterday we saw subwave 3 inside this impulse. Now a small correction (wave 4) is underway, after which wave 5 up should hit. Ichimoku: Although the indicator lines are not shown, from the behavior of the MAs it’s clear that on D1 the price is trying to enter the lower boundary of the Cloud (Kumo). On the hourly (H1) we are firmly fixed above the Tenkan and Kijun lines, and the Cloud has flipped bullish (Kumo Twist). This is a strong signal to hold longs. My action plan (for today and the week)

EUR/USD

What to do after yesterday’s move: Yesterday’s impulse set a bullish vector. Jumping in and chasing right from the current 1.1438 is risky; it’s better to wait for a local retest of the broken zone. The optimal option is to look for a long entry on micro pullbacks. Plan for today: Locally we’ll likely range within the current “flag” on H1 in the 1.1425–1.1445 area. A quick spike down to the support level 1.14207 is possible (to sweep intraday stops) and then a sharp buyback aiming to update yesterday’s high around 1.1460. Plan for the whole week: Weekly targets are purely bullish. On the daily chart, strong historical levels are marked with thick red lines. The main target by Friday is to reach and test the strong resistance at 1.15001. If we break it on volume by midweek, then by the end of the week we’ll see the euro around 1.1550–1.1575. Invalidation scenario: If the price suddenly overlaps yesterday’s impulse and falls, consolidating below the red level 1.14114, it means the move up was false and we’ll go back to chopping the lows around 1.1350. But for now, technically, the buyer looks much stronger.
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