Good afternoon. It's interesting to follow the EUR/USD currency pair, which is currently showing weakness again after experiencing gains in the past few days. Looking at the daily timeframe, the major trend remains bearish. This is clearly visible from the downward-pointing Bollinger Bands, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate the market. The previous rally is also still held back in the middle Bollinger Band area, which acts as dynamic resistance, preventing it from shifting the trend structure to bullish. Although buyer volume has increased in the past few days, the momentum is not yet strong enough to reverse the price movement. As long as the price remains below this resistance area, the chance of a continuation of the downtrend remains high. Additional confirmation will be stronger if the MACD indicator moves back below the signal line after previously indicating weakening momentum. Furthermore, the price has formed a lower low structure by breaking through the support area around 1.140 and briefly reaching around 1.131, further reinforcing the indication that a downtrend remains the primary scenario for the medium to long term
Moving to the H4 timeframe, the technical picture remains consistent with the analysis on the daily timeframe. The previous rally successfully entered the FTR (supply resistance) area around 1.145, but the price again failed to break through strong resistance around 1.148. The rejection from this supply area indicates that seller pressure is still working effectively. As a result, the price has recently corrected, dropping to the 1.139 area. This decline has also pushed the price back below the middle Bollinger Band and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling a strengthening of bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator also provides increasingly clear confirmation, as the histogram is moving down, even breaking through the zero line and remaining below the signal line. This condition indicates that selling momentum remains dominant and the likelihood of a continuation of the bearish trend is quite high as long as there is no significant change in the price structure. Based on the combined analysis on the daily and H4 timeframes, both indicate that EUR/USD remains in a bearish or downtrend. Therefore, my trading plan for today is to look for sell opportunities in the 1,140 area with a stop-loss at 1,148 to limit risk if the price moves against the scenario. Meanwhile, the profit target is around 1,132, the next support area, which could potentially become a price target if seller pressure persists. Alternative scenarios still need to be prepared for risk management. A buy option will only be considered if the price breaks through 1,148 or hits the stop-loss of the sell position, as a breakout above this resistance area could potentially signal a change in momentum and open the possibility of a reversal towards a short-term bullish trend.
