Hello, good afternoo. Allow me to share my views on the XAUUSD movement. Looking at the daily timeframe, the current trend remains bearish. This is evident from the downward trend in the Bollinger Band and the price's repeated rejection in the middle Bollinger Band area, which functions as dynamic resistance. Selling pressure has also begun to appear in the last four trading days, indicating a renewed seller dominance in the gold market. Furthermore, the MACD indicator, which had previously been consistently rising, is now weakening and approaching the signal line. A breakout below the signal line would increase the chance of a bearish continuation signal, opening up room for the price to move lower again toward the 3925 support area.
On the H4 timeframe, bearish signals are also quite clear. The price has broken out below the middle Bollinger Band and is below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, a key indication that the medium-term market structure remains dominated by sellers. Additional confirmation comes from the MACD indicator, where the histogram has moved below the zero line and consistently below the signal line. This condition indicates that bearish momentum remains quite strong, and selling pressure has not shown any significant signs of weakening. Interestingly, a supply area formed from the previous sharp decline around 4100. This zone was formed through a bearish engulfing pattern, which is quite ideal as a seller defense area. When the price rose, this area again proved capable of holding back the rally and triggered a rejection, sending the price back down to around 4059. Although the decline was not significant, this response already suggests that sellers still hold the market. Therefore, my trading plan remains focused on a sell scenario in the 4100 area with a stop-loss at 4200, while the downside target is around 3970 as a minimum target and has the potential to extend to the 3925 support area if the bearish momentum persists.
