FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD H1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: On the H1 chart, I can see that XAUUSD is still trading below the major descending trend line, showing that sellers continue to control the short-term market structure. The recent rejection from the BSL near the upper swing confirms that buyers failed to maintain momentum after the previous rally. Price created a BOS earlier, but the follow-through buying was weak, and the market started forming lower highs under the LIQ AREA. I believe this area around 4165.540 is acting as strong resistance because every recovery attempt is being rejected before reaching the 4H SUPPLY ZONE. The 4H SUPPLY ZONE between approximately 4190 and 4202 remains the most important resistance on my chart, and unless price closes above this zone, I will continue to respect the bearish structure. The current candles are also respecting the descending trend line, showing that sellers are defending every upward movement. I notice that momentum is slowing as price approaches the trend line, which increases the probability of another rejection. If buyers manage to sweep the LIQ area without breaking the trend line decisively, that move could simply become a liquidity grab before fresh selling enters the market. I think patience is important because entering before confirmation could expose traders to unnecessary risk. As long as the market remains below the trend line and below the recent swing high, the overall bias stays negative. The previous BOS is still valid, but it has not been strong enough to change the broader bearish outlook. The market is now approaching a decision point where either a clean rejection or a confirmed breakout will determine the next directional move. My primary expectation remains a bearish continuation toward the SSL and finally the target zone around 4100.269. The projected path on my chart suggests that price may first revisit the LIQ area, attract late buyers, and then continue lower after another rejection from the descending resistance. I think this scenario aligns well with the current market structure because lower highs and repeated failures near resistance normally indicate that institutional selling pressure is still active. If price falls below the recent intraday lows, bearish momentum could accelerate quickly toward the SSL, where resting liquidity may become the next objective. A successful sweep of the SSL could then open the way for the target zone, completing the expected move shown on my chart. However, I will also watch the reaction carefully because a strong H1 close above the descending trend line and above 4165.540 would weaken this bearish idea and could increase the probability of a move into the 4H SUPPLY ZONE. Even then, I would only consider the broader trend changing after a sustained break above that supply area. Fundamental developments such as USD strength, changes in FED expectations, geopolitical headlines, or shifts in global risk sentiment may increase volatility, but the technical structure currently favors sellers. For now, I prefer to follow the bearish bias while price respects the trend line, protects the LIQ AREA as resistance, and continues targeting the SSL before any potential move toward the final target zone.

The four hourly chart shows that Gold is trading around 4,120.670 after recovering from lower levels, but the overall structure still looks weak because price remains under the falling trendline and is trading inside the 4H supply zone near 4,120.00-4,123.00. I think this area is very important because sellers have already reacted here several times. As long as price stays below this resistance, the market may struggle to continue higher. The previous BS LIQ has already been taken, and now the focus is on the TL LIQ area, where liquidity is sitting close to the current price. If buyers fail to break above 4,123.00 with a strong candle close, selling pressure could increase again. I will watch this level carefully because rejection from this zone could confirm that the downtrend is still active. A successful break and close above 4,123.00 would weaken the bearish outlook and could open the way toward 4,150.00 and even 4,175.00. However, until that breakout happens, I prefer to remain cautious because the descending trendline continues to control the market. The candles also show hesitation near resistance, suggesting that buyers are losing momentum while sellers are defending higher prices. This makes the current zone a decision point where the next major move could begin.

If sellers regain control from the current resistance, the first important downside level is the daily support zone around 4,040.378. I believe this level could attract buyers for a short-term bounce, but if it fails to hold, the decline may extend toward 3,950.00, which is also highlighted by the projected path on the chart. A move below **4,040.378** would strengthen the bearish trend and increase the chance of deeper selling pressure. Market sentiment is also being influenced by global events, especially ongoing war situations and geopolitical tensions. Any escalation in conflicts, military action, or uncertainty in major regions can quickly increase demand for Gold as investors look for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, if there are signs of peace talks, ceasefire agreements, or reduced geopolitical risk, safe-haven demand may weaken, allowing sellers to push prices lower from the current resistance. Because of this, I think traders should combine the technical picture with news developments instead of relying on price action alone. For now, the chart continues to favor selling below 4,123.00, while a confirmed breakout above that level would change the short-term outlook. I will stay patient and wait for confirmation before entering any trade because the market is sitting at a key turning point where both technical resistance and geopolitical headlines can create strong volatility.