The 1D chart shows that EUR/USD is still moving inside a clear bearish trend channel, and the overall market structure continues to favor sellers. The pair is currently trading near 1.14150 after failing to hold above recent recovery levels. I can see that every rally inside the channel has attracted fresh selling pressure, which shows that bearish momentum is still controlling the market. The first important resistance is around 1.15500, while the major resistance zone stands between 1.15500 and 1.16264, where the FVG+OB area is marked on your chart. I think this zone will be very difficult for buyers to break unless there is a strong bullish catalyst. If price manages to close above 1.16264, it could challenge higher levels and gradually move toward 1.17921, which is marked as the all-time high area on your chart. However, the current price action is still respecting the descending channel, and the recent rejection near the upper boundary suggests that sellers remain active. The BSL has already been targeted, reducing the chance of another immediate move higher without first building fresh liquidity. I will continue watching whether price remains below the upper trendline because another rejection from this area would strengthen the existing bearish trend. The candles also show that buyers are struggling to create higher highs, while lower highs continue to develop, keeping the downward structure intact.
Looking at the downside, the projected path on your chart suggests that price could first attempt a small recovery before continuing lower within the trend channel. I believe any bounce that remains below 1.15500 may only be temporary if sellers continue defending the resistance area. A break below 1.14000 would increase bearish pressure and could push the pair toward 1.13000, with the possibility of extending closer to 1.12000 if momentum accelerates. Traders should also pay close attention to economic data, central bank comments, and overall market sentiment because these factors can quickly change the direction of the pair. At the same time, ongoing war situations and rising geopolitical tensions can increase uncertainty across financial markets. During periods of military conflict or political instability, investors often reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets and move toward safe-haven investments, which can create additional pressure on EUR/USD. On the other hand, positive developments such as ceasefire agreements, successful peace negotiations, or reduced global tensions may improve market confidence and support a stronger recovery in the euro. I think it is important to combine technical analysis with fundamental news because unexpected geopolitical headlines can quickly invalidate short-term chart patterns. For now, the overall outlook remains bearish while price trades inside the descending channel and below 1.15500. A confirmed daily close above 1.16264 would be the first strong signal that buyers are regaining control, but until then, the chart continues to favor selling opportunities on rallies rather than expecting a sustained bullish reversal.
