EUR/JPY H4 Timeframe 
Based on the EUR/JPY H4 timeframe chart, the current price movement is showing a short-term weakening phase after previously experiencing a gradual rise from the late-June lows. Analysis using the 100-period Moving Average (blue line), 200-period Moving Average (red line), as well as horizontal support and resistance levels indicates that this pair is currently in an area where a new direction is being determined. The last price is around 184.48, right near the 184.43–184.65 horizontal support area, which has previously acted several times as a bounce point and consolidation zone. Price returning down into this area indicates that selling pressure is starting to increase after failing to maintain bullish momentum toward higher resistance levels. From the Moving Average perspective, the 100 MA is still slightly above the 200 MA, indicating that the medium-term trend has not fully turned bearish. However, the slope of both moving averages is starting to flatten, showing that the previously dominant bullish momentum is beginning to lose strength. Price has also moved down to trade below the 100 MA and slightly below the 200 MA, a condition that usually serves as an early signal that sellers are starting to take control of the market in the short term. If the next few candles are able to hold below both moving averages, the probability of a clearer bearish trend forming will increase. Conversely, if price can close back above the 100 MA and 200 MA, the current weakness may only be a temporary correction before the uptrend resumes. The first horizontal resistance level is seen around 184.65, which has now turned into the nearest resistance after previously acting as support. This area is an important level that must be broken if buyers want to regain market dominance. As long as price is still moving below that level, selling pressure is expected to remain relatively dominant. The next resistance is at 185.81, which is the swing high area several times from late June to early July. This level is an important boundary because it has repeatedly been the area where profit-taking occurs. If the 185.81 resistance is broken with a strong bullish candle and increasing volume, the opportunity for a rise toward the main resistance at 186.31 will reopen. The 186.31 area itself is the price peak that so far remains the biggest obstacle for the bullish trend on the H4 timeframe. On the downside, the first support is at 184.43, which is currently being tested by price. This area is a very important level because it has acted several times as a bounce point over the past few weeks. If this support can still be maintained, the chance for a technical rebound toward the 100 MA and 200 MA remains open. However, if selling pressure strengthens to the point that price manages to close consistently below 184.43, the potential decline toward the next support at 183.93 will increase. That level is a fairly strong demand area because it previously managed to halt a sharp drop at the end of June. If the 183.93 support also fails to hold, the next downside target points to 183.16, which is a major support as well as an important low over the past few months. A break below that level will confirm a change in market structure to bearish in the medium term. The latest candlestick structure also shows the emergence of fairly aggressive selling pressure after price failed to sustain gains around 185.60. Several consecutive bearish candles indicate that market participants have started distributing positions after the previous rally. Even so, there has not yet been a truly impulsive decline, so there is still a chance for consolidation around the current support area before the next direction is decided. Conditions like this often become a balancing phase between buyer and seller strength before a clearer breakout appears. As long as price is moving between the 184.43 support and 184.65 resistance, EUR/JPY is likely to be in a sideways phase with relatively limited volatility. A breakout from either of these levels will likely trigger the next directional move. If price manages to break back above and hold above the 100 MA and 200 MA, bullish sentiment could regain dominance with gradual targets toward 185.81 and 186.31. Conversely, if selling pressure continues and price closes below the 184.43 support, the probability of a decline toward 183.93 and even 183.16 will increase. Overall, the technical analysis of EUR/JPY on the H4 timeframe shows that the medium-term trend is starting to lose bullish momentum even though the 100 MA is still above the 200 MA. The current position of price below both moving averages indicates short-term bearish pressure that needs to be watched. The 184.43 area is a crucial point that will determine whether the market is only undergoing a healthy correction or is starting to enter a deeper decline phase. Therefore, confirmation from price action around the horizontal support and resistance levels, as well as the price position relative to the 100 MA and 200 MA, will be the main factors in determining the direction of EUR/JPY in the next few trading sessions.
