FX.co ★ GBP/USD

GBP/USD Daily Technical Analysis: The Daily chart of GBP/USD shows that price is trading close to a very important Supply zone around 1.33930, where selling pressure has already started to appear. I can see that the market first moved above the previous BSL, creating a LIQ sweep, but buyers failed to maintain momentum after that move. The appearance of the pin bar rejection candle inside the supply area suggests that higher prices were rejected by sellers, increasing the probability of a bearish reaction. I believe this rejection is an important warning because liquidity has already been collected above the previous highs, and the market often changes direction after such events. Price is currently trading near 1.34022, while the nearest resistance remains around 1.34461. As long as daily candles continue closing below this resistance and the supply zone remains respected, sellers may gradually regain control. I will continue watching whether another bearish confirmation candle develops because that would strengthen the possibility of a larger downside move. The overall structure also indicates that the recent bullish recovery is approaching a technical barrier rather than starting a fresh bullish trend. Although buyers have managed to recover from the lows, they have not produced a convincing breakout above the highlighted resistance, which keeps the current outlook cautious. A strong daily close above 1.34461 would weaken the bearish scenario, but until that happens, I think rallies into the highlighted zone may continue attracting selling interest. The chart also highlights external structure below the current market, suggesting that the broader trend still has unfinished downside objectives. If sellers successfully defend the supply zone, I expect price could first revisit 1.33050, which is the nearest support level shown on the chart. A daily close below that level would increase the probability of extending the decline toward 1.31626, where another important support is located. From there, the market could continue moving toward the marked external LIQ, completing the liquidity objective illustrated on the chart. I believe this path matches the current market structure because the liquidity sweep above resistance has already provided a possible trigger for institutional selling. However, risk management remains essential because financial markets can quickly react to unexpected economic releases from the United Kingdom or the United States. Strong employment data, inflation figures, central bank comments, or changes in interest rate expectations could temporarily invalidate the technical setup. Even so, as long as price remains below 1.34461 and continues respecting the highlighted supply zone, I prefer to view upward movements as corrective rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish trend. A confirmed bearish rejection followed by increasing selling volume would provide stronger confidence that the market is preparing for a move toward the lower support levels and eventually the external liquidity target shown on your chart.

GBP/USD on the H4 timeframe continues to maintain a bullish market structure after printing a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) above the previous swing high near 1.33286, which marked the transition from a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows into a bullish trend. Following the BOS, price formed a Trend Structure Shift (TSS) and later a Change of Character (CHoCH), confirming that buyers have regained control. The recent impulsive rally swept the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) resting above previous equal highs before reaching the BSR Sell-Side Liquidity Zone between 1.34500–1.35800. This area is a premium price zone where institutions often begin distributing positions after engineering liquidity grabs. The current rejection from this region suggests profit-taking rather than a confirmed bearish reversal, as the broader bullish structure remains intact while price continues to hold above the previous BOS level. RSI (14) remains around 56.8, indicating bullish momentum without entering an overbought condition, leaving room for another continuation move if buyers defend current support. Volume also expanded during the impulsive breakout, confirming institutional participation instead of a weak retail-driven rally.

From a Smart Money Concept perspective, traders should now focus on whether price delivers a healthy retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 1.33300–1.33800, where imbalance remains unfilled and institutional demand may return. As long as the market respects this discount zone and holds above 1.33286, the overall bias remains bullish, with potential upside targets at 1.35800 followed by 1.36700 if another liquidity sweep develops. However, failure to hold above the BOS level would invalidate the current bullish continuation scenario and expose price to deeper downside toward 1.31591, which represents the major demand and external sell-side liquidity zone. Traders should avoid chasing price into the premium BSR zone and instead wait for confirmation such as a bullish engulfing candle, liquidity sweep, CHoCH on lower timeframes, or displacement from the FVG before entering long positions. The current market structure favors trend-following strategies rather than countertrend selling unless a confirmed bearish BOS develops below 1.33286. Proper risk management remains essential by risking only 1–2% per trade and allowing institutional order flow to confirm direction before execution.