#USD/JPY Hi everyone, colleagues. I checked the USD/JPY charts that were posted (D1 and H1), sketched out my thoughts for tomorrow and next week. Not claiming to be the ultimate truth, but the picture looks interesting. So, here’s the idea.
1. What we have on the higher timeframe (D1) 
On the daily chart the trend is strongly bullish, no point arguing. We’re moving within the global 5th wave, and the price is now squeezed right at the top in the 162.35 - 164.39 area. From a Smart Money perspective, there’s liquidity (BSL) left above the previous high. But it’s too early to celebrate: MACD on the daily is starting to fade, volumes are dropping, and RSI is stuck at 59 – in short, overbought conditions are still there. If you pull a Fib on the last major upward move, we’re now in a deep premium zone. Buying from here is not much fun, way too expensive.
2. What’s on the lower timeframe (H1) 
And here’s the most interesting part for tomorrow. On the hourly chart you can clearly see a flat. Price is just ranging sideways between 161.40 and 162.60. Pay attention to the dump that happened around July 10–14 – a strong imbalance (FVG) was left there and a bullish Order Block was formed below in the 161.40 - 161.70 area. At the moment price is grinding along the upper Bollinger Band. RSI on H1 is around 48, so we’re hanging right in the middle, no clear intraday direction.
My plan and thoughts for the week I see two possible scenarios, but I’m leaning more toward a manipulation move. Scenario 1 (Priority – Liquidity grab and pullback): The market maker will most likely first push the price up at the weekly open to take out short stops above 162.60 - 162.87 (there’s a fat liquidity pool there). After that I expect a sharp reversal down and a move into correction. The target of this drop is to test that same bullish Order Block on H1 (161.40) and fill the imbalance. This will roughly coincide with the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels of the local impulse.
Scenario 2 (Long continuation): If the Asians tomorrow immediately hold above 162.60 with an H4 candle close, then we cancel the correction. We’ll head straight for a new high at 164.39. But volumes are weak, so it’s unlikely we go there without refueling. Conclusion: For tomorrow I’m locally looking for a short, but only after a manipulation move and taking out the high on H1. Globally for the week – I’m expecting a drop to 161.40, and from there we can start looking for a good long with targets at the all-time high. What do you think? Is anyone trading yen now or just sitting on the sidelines?
