FX.co ★ EUR/USD

The euro found itself under renewed selling pressure against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate declining toward three-week lows around the 1.1379 level. This downward momentum was predominantly driven by a potent combination of geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and a corresponding surge in global crude oil prices. As hostilities across key maritime transit corridors intensified, energy markets reacted with sharp gains, reigniting widespread concerns over sticky headline inflation. Because energy price spikes threaten to delay the cooling of price pressures, market participants quickly recalibrated their monetary policy expectations for the Federal Reserve. Investors increasingly priced in a more hawkish policy trajectory from the US central bank, betting that persistent energy-driven inflationary risks could compel US monetary authorities to maintain higher interest rates for longer or even contemplate further policy tightening. This macro environment provided a strong tailwind for the US dollar, which benefits not only from expanding yield expectations but also from its traditional status as a premier safe-haven asset during times of heightened global uncertainty. In tandem with the greenback’s broad-based strength, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the currency's value against a basket of six major global currencies, advanced toward the 101.40 mark. This rally represented a notable recovery from an earlier intraday low of 100.94, underscoring resilient demand for US assets amid broader market volatility. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy announcement failed to offer meaningful support to the shared currency. The ECB opted to keep its key benchmark interest rates unchanged, a decision that was universally anticipated by financial markets and consequently triggered a minimal market reaction. While European policymakers acknowledged the inflation risks posed by renewed energy shocks, the lack of an immediate policy shift or aggressive forward guidance left the euro vulnerable to broader macroeconomic headwinds. Given that the US economy is widely viewed as better insulated from energy disruptions compared to energy-importing European economies, capital flows continued to favor the American currency over its European counterpart. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to exhibit a distinctly cautious configuration, even as spot prices attempt to build a tentative floor just above the critical 1.1350 handle. On the daily chart, the pair’s broader near-term bias remains tilted to the downside, largely because price action continues to trade comfortably beneath its primary short- and medium-term trend indicators. Specifically, the exchange rate remains capped beneath the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) located at 1.1415, which serves as the immediate dynamic barrier to any short-term recovery attempts. Further above, the 50-day SMA at 1.1504 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1576 align to reinforce a dense overhead resistance structure, confirming that the path of least resistance over a medium-term horizon remains directed downward.

Momentum indicators provide additional confirmation of this prevailing bearish tilt while offering subtle hints of market hesitation. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 39, remaining well below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling that sellers retain firm control of price direction without the pair yet reaching deeply oversold conditions. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator displays a marginally positive reading. This minor divergence suggests that while downside momentum has moderated somewhat, allowing for short-term price stabilization above recent lows, buying conviction remains decidedly tentative and lacks the impulse required to initiate a meaningful trend reversal. Looking ahead at key technical levels, traders are monitoring defined boundaries for the pair’s next directional catalyst. On the upside, an initial hurdle resides at the 21-day SMA near 1.1415, where a decisive daily breakout would be necessary to ease immediate downside pressure. A successful push above this level would open the door for a corrective advance toward the 50-day SMA at 1.1504 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1576, with the major horizontal resistance zone at 1.1700 standing as the ultimate structural threshold for bulls to reclaim long-term control. Conversely, immediate downside protection is anchored at the 1.1350 support level. A sustained breakdown below 1.1350 would breach the recently established base, exposing EUR/USD to accelerated selling and opening the door for deeper losses toward multi-month lows. Conversely, as long as the 1.1350 floor holds firm, the pair maintains the potential for a corrective rebound toward its key overhead moving averages.