FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EUR/USD Daily chart shows the pair trading around 1.14036, and the overall technical picture continues to favor sellers even though the market has started to stabilize after the latest decline. From my perspective, the most important feature on the chart is the transition from a bullish sequence into a confirmed bearish order-flow environment. The previous advance reached the 1.18499 BSR Liquidity Zone, where external buy-side liquidity was engineered before institutions aggressively repriced the market lower. That rejection produced a decisive Change of Character (CHoCH), followed by a sequence of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL), confirming that control shifted from buyers to sellers. I also notice that price failed to reclaim the descending trendline, reinforcing that rallies are currently corrective rather than impulsive. The recent consolidation around 1.14036 reflects temporary balance rather than a confirmed reversal. The RSI remains near 43, indicating bearish momentum has eased but has not transitioned into bullish dominance. This suggests sellers are no longer pressing aggressively, yet buyers still lack sufficient strength to invalidate the broader bearish framework. I believe the Equal Highs (EQH) marked around 1.14750–1.14980 represent the nearest liquidity objective because resting buy stops are likely positioned above those swing highs. Institutions often target these liquidity pockets before deciding whether to continue the prevailing trend. If price sweeps that EQH region but fails to achieve strong daily acceptance above it, I would consider it a classic liquidity collection rather than genuine bullish continuation. The blue Demand Zone between 1.11000 and 1.12000 remains the most significant support area because it represents the location where aggressive buying previously interrupted bearish momentum. As long as EUR/USD remains above that region, sellers may continue taking profits on declines, creating short-term recoveries. However, unless the market closes decisively above 1.16270, the broader structure remains technically bearish. Volume has also moderated during the consolidation phase, suggesting both sides are waiting for a catalyst before initiating another directional expansion. I prefer observing how price reacts around the equilibrium level rather than anticipating a breakout too early. If buyers establish sustained acceptance above 1.14980, the next upside objectives would be 1.16270, 1.17560, and eventually a retest of the 1.18499 BSR liquidity region. Conversely, renewed rejection below current levels would strengthen the probability of another decline toward 1.12000, where institutional demand may become active again. Looking deeper into the annotated structure, I believe the market is currently trading inside a redistribution phase rather than beginning a fresh bullish trend. The inability to produce a decisive impulsive recovery after the previous bearish displacement suggests that professional participants continue favoring premium selling opportunities instead of aggressive accumulation. I also notice that every recovery has stalled beneath the descending resistance path, reflecting disciplined supply absorption at higher prices. Personally, I would remain patient and avoid buying directly into resistance because the dominant higher-timeframe structure still favors sellers until proven otherwise. The current price around 1.14036 sits close to equilibrium, meaning risk-to-reward is less attractive for new positions without confirmation. If buyers generate strong displacement above 1.14980, reclaim the previous swing structure, and convert that region into support, the probability of continuation toward 1.16270 would improve considerably. Even then, I would monitor whether bullish candles are supported by increasing participation rather than weak corrective movement. On the bearish side, failure to sustain above 1.14000 could encourage renewed selling pressure toward 1.13000, followed by the major demand zone around 1.12000–1.11000. A decisive daily close beneath 1.11000 would expose deeper sell-side liquidity and confirm continuation of the dominant bearish trend. Another encouraging detail for sellers is that RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, showing momentum has not yet shifted into a bullish regime despite recent stabilization. I also observe that volatility has compressed significantly during the latest candles, a condition that often precedes expansion once sufficient liquidity has accumulated on either side of the market. Rather than predicting the breakout direction, I prefer allowing structure, momentum, and liquidity interaction to provide confirmation. From a Smart Money perspective, the market continues respecting premium and discount pricing principles, with rallies into resistance offering stronger technical interest than chasing price in the middle of the range. Overall, EUR/USD remains technically bearish while trading around 1.14036, with the sequence of LHs and LLs still intact. The BSR Liquidity Zone at 1.18499 remains the long-term external objective above, but in the near term, price must first reclaim 1.14980 and 1.16270 before any meaningful trend reversal can be considered. Until that happens, I believe the higher-probability scenario remains continued consolidation followed by another test of lower liquidity, while disciplined traders wait for confirmation instead of anticipating reversals prematurely.

The EUR/USD daily chart continues to reflect a predominantly bearish market structure, with price currently trading around 1.13696 after an extended decline from the major swing high near 1.18500. From my perspective, the overall order flow remains controlled by sellers because the chart has produced consecutive lower highs and lower lows, confirming a sustained bearish trend. The first significant Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred after buyers failed to maintain momentum above the previous swing highs, allowing institutional sellers to regain control. That structural change was later confirmed by multiple bearish Breaks of Structure (BoS), each demonstrating that external downside liquidity remained the primary objective. I notice that every corrective rally has been relatively shallow and has repeatedly respected the descending trend line, which continues to act as dynamic resistance. As long as price trades beneath this trend line, I believe bearish momentum remains intact. The highlighted Supply Zone around 1.18499 represents the origin of aggressive institutional selling, and every rejection from that premium area has reinforced the dominance of smart money distribution. Meanwhile, the current FVG plus Order Block located just above the recent lows is an important institutional decision point. This confluence represents an imbalance created during the bearish displacement, and I expect price could revisit this zone before determining its next directional move. If buyers temporarily recover into this FVG and bearish Order Block, I would carefully monitor for rejection because institutions frequently mitigate inefficiencies before continuing with the prevailing trend. The visible Demand Zone beneath current price remains the next significant support area where larger buy orders may be resting, but it has not yet been fully tested. I also recognise that the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) remains positioned above the recent corrective highs, while the more attractive Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) continues to rest below the current swing lows. Since smart money generally seeks liquidity before initiating major moves, I believe the market still has an incentive to target SSL before considering a larger reversal. Volume behaviour also supports this interpretation because stronger participation accompanied the bearish impulsive legs, while bullish retracements developed with comparatively lighter conviction. I would therefore avoid assuming that the recent consolidation represents accumulation. Instead, I interpret it as a pause within a broader bearish trend that may eventually generate another bearish displacement. If sellers continue defending the FVG plus Order Block, downside objectives near 1.13200, 1.12500, and eventually the 1.11000 Demand Zone remain realistic. Only a decisive close above the descending trend line together with a bullish MSS would weaken my current bearish outlook.

Although the dominant trend remains bearish, I also understand that markets rarely move in a straight line, especially after extended directional impulses. The RSI hovering below the midpoint indicates relatively weak bullish momentum, but it also suggests that the market is no longer extremely overextended. I would therefore expect periods of corrective expansion before any continuation toward lower liquidity. My attention would remain focused on the reaction inside the highlighted FVG plus Order Block, because this institutional zone could determine whether the current consolidation develops into a larger retracement or simply prepares the market for another bearish impulse. If buyers manage to generate strong bullish displacement from current levels, reclaim the descending trend line, and produce a confirmed bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) followed by a bullish Break of Structure (BoS), I would begin reassessing the higher-timeframe bias. Under that scenario, the first upside objectives would likely become 1.14500, 1.15750, and eventually the 1.18499 Supply Zone, where significant Buy Side Liquidity remains available. However, I consider that outcome secondary because the existing sequence of lower highs remains technically valid. My preferred approach would be to wait patiently for bearish confirmation rather than chasing price during corrective rallies. If I observe rejection candles inside the bearish Order Block together with renewed downside displacement, I would interpret that as institutional confirmation that sellers remain committed to targeting deeper liquidity. A decisive break beneath the current range would expose the nearby SSL, and once that liquidity is collected, price could continue toward the broader Demand Zone around 1.11000. Until a genuine bullish MSS invalidates the current bearish structure, I continue viewing every rally into premium pricing as a potential selling opportunity rather than the beginning of a long-term reversal. The interaction between the descending trend line, bearish Order Block, Supply Zone, FVG, BSL, SSL, and Demand Zone provides a clear smart money framework that supports continuation of the prevailing bearish order flow. While short-term volatility is always possible, I believe institutional participants remain focused on engineering liquidity beneath recent lows before considering a meaningful trend reversal. Therefore, my overall outlook on this EUR/USD daily chart remains cautiously bearish, with price still respecting the dominant structural sequence established by repeated MSS confirmations, multiple bearish BoS events, and continuous rejection from premium supply areas.