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Trader Journals:::2026-08-01T06:18:38

Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

BITCOIN H4 Timeframe

Bitcoin/BTCUSD forecasts

Based on the BITCOIN (BTC) H4 timeframe chart, the technical condition shows that this crypto asset is currently in a consolidation phase with a short-term bearish bias, even though the broader trend structure has not completely lost its bullish character. Price action over the past few weeks has shown fairly high volatility, marked by the formation of several closely spaced peaks and troughs. After successfully printing a high around the 66,983 area, selling pressure pushed BTC back down below the 100-period Moving Average (MA 100) and the 200-period Moving Average (MA 200). This position indicates that bullish momentum is starting to weaken, so market participants need to be more cautious about the potential for further correction before a clearer reversal signal appears. From the Moving Average perspective, the MA 100, shown with a blue line, previously acted as dynamic support when the uptrend was in progress in mid-July. However, in the last few sessions, price failed to hold above this indicator and eventually moved down to trade below it. The MA 200, shown with a red line, is also very close to the MA 100 and has now started to move relatively flat. This condition shows that the balance between buyers and sellers is changing, where the previously strong buyer dominance is starting to fade. As long as price remains below both moving averages, the potential for a recovery is relatively limited and any rallies are still likely to face selling pressure around the MA 100 and MA 200 areas. The price structure also shows a fairly important change. After forming the highest peak around 66,983, BTC failed to maintain bullish momentum and began to print a series of lower highs. This pattern is an early signal that buyers are starting to lose strength, while sellers are beginning to take control of the market. Even so, price has not yet formed a significant lower low, so the medium-term trend is still in a transition phase. Therefore, the support area currently being tested will be the key to determining whether the correction is only temporary or develops into a deeper downtrend. The nearest horizontal support is in the 63,244 area, which is currently being tested by price. This level plays an important role because it has previously acted several times as a consolidation area as well as a bounce point. As long as this support can be maintained, the potential for a technical rebound is still quite open. Buyer reaction around this area will be the main indicator to assess whether buying interest is still strong enough to maintain the broader price structure. If the 63,244 support is broken with a convincing candle close, then attention will shift to the next support around 61,799. This area is a fairly strong horizontal support because it has acted several times as the starting point of previous rallies. A decline toward this level can still be categorized as a healthy correction as long as it is not accompanied by very aggressive selling pressure. However, if the 61,799 support also fails to hold, then the probability of a drop toward 59,597 will increase. That level is a major support that forms an important foundation for the uptrend that has developed since late June. Below it, there is still additional support around 57,809, which is the last boundary before the medium-term bullish structure truly loses its validity. On the resistance side, the first area to watch is around 64,457, which is close to the positions of the MA 100 and MA 200. The combination of horizontal resistance with dynamic resistance from both moving averages makes this area a fairly strong barrier for any price recovery attempts. If buyers are able to push price back above this level, market sentiment could potentially turn more positive. The next resistance is around 65,721, which is an important supply area after the correction from the July peak. A breakout of this level would be a signal that buyers are starting to regain control of the market and would open the door to test the major resistance around 66,983. That area is the latest swing high, so it will be the main target if bullish momentum develops again. However, as long as price has not managed to move back above 65,721, any upside is better viewed as a rebound within a consolidation phase. From the candlestick characteristics, selling pressure is still quite dominant in the last few sessions. Several relatively long bearish candles indicate fairly strong distribution after price failed to hold the resistance area. Even so, smaller-bodied candles have started to appear around the 63,244 support, indicating that selling pressure is beginning to ease. This condition often marks the beginning of a consolidation phase before the market decides its next direction. Therefore, confirmation from the next candles will be very important to determine whether buyers can build new momentum or sellers will resume their pressure. Overall, the technical analysis of BITCOIN on the H4 timeframe shows that the market is in a consolidation phase with a short-term bearish bias after price moved below the MA 100 and MA 200. The main supports are at 63,244, then 61,799, 59,597, and 57,809, while key resistances are in the 64,457, 65,721, and 66,983 areas. As long as price is still moving below both moving averages, any upside still requires additional confirmation in the form of a valid breakout. Conversely, if the 63,244 support is able to hold and is followed by a move back above the MA 100 and MA 200, the probability of a new bullish trend forming will increase. For now, the main focus of market participants is to observe price reaction around the nearest support, as this area will likely determine the direction of BITCOIN’s movement in the next few trading sessions.
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