FX.co ★ XAG/USD, SILVER

Silver prices extended their winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, trading near $62.20 per ounce during Asian hours as news of a potential deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices lower and eased broader concerns about inflation and interest rate prospects. The precious metal has been on a tear, benefiting from a combination of easing geopolitical tensions and softening US economic data that have weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields. The catalyst for the latest move came from an agreement between Iran and Oman on temporary shipping routes through the strategic waterway, boosting global expectations for increased energy flows in the Middle East. The joint declaration is currently in the final drafting stage, and while the proposed route is planned to run for two to four months, Tehran has made it clear that this arrangement does not amount to a complete reopening of the strait. Despite that caveat, the market has reacted positively, with crude prices retreating and inflation fears subsiding. The resilience of these spreads reinforces the message from physical flows that crude markets remain tight on fundamentals, despite headline risk and speculative activity having an outsized impact on daily price movements. On the US economic front, softer data has added to the bullish case for silver. ADP reported that private sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs in July, a sharp slowdown from June's 98,000 gain and well below the 70,000 consensus. That cooling in the labor market has reinforced expectations that the Fed may not need to tighten as aggressively, weighing on the dollar and providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets like silver. Traders are now closely watching Thursday's initial jobless claims and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report for further confirmation of a softening labor market. Any signs of weakness could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance and drive silver even higher. For now, the combination of geopolitical hopes and soft US data has created a favorable environment for the white metal.

Silver is currently trading at $61.70. On the hourly chart, the 50-period SMA sits at $60.70 while the 200-period SMA is positioned lower at $58.64, meaning price is trading roughly $100 above the shorter average and about $306 above the longer one. That's a strongly bullish setup on the short-term horizon, with the 50 SMA above the 200 SMA forming a golden cross that signals upward momentum is intact and accelerating. The gap between the two hourly averages is about $206 and widening rapidly, suggesting that the current uptrend is gaining significant strength. The fact that both averages are sloping sharply upward reinforces the positive short-term picture. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the outlook remains equally constructive. The 50 SMA sits at $58.60 while the 200 SMA is positioned slightly higher at $58.90, meaning price is trading roughly $310 above both averages. That's an extremely bullish configuration, with the price having completely disconnected from the moving averages in a sharp breakout move. The fact that the H4 50 SMA and 200 SMA are nearly flat and converging, with the 50 SMA just below the 200 SMA, suggests that the broader trend was recently in a consolidation phase, but the explosive breakout has pushed price far above both averages. This alignment across timeframes, with price well above all key SMAs and the shorter averages above the longer ones on the hourly chart, paints a picture of a market that is in a strong bull run. On the resistance side, the first hurdle is $62.20, Thursday's high, which has proven to be a sticking point. Above that, the next supply zone runs from $62.50 to $62.70, followed by a heavier barrier at $63.00. If buyers manage to clear all of that, the next targets are $63.40 and then $63.80. On the support side, the first floor is at $61.00, which aligns with the recent breakout level and adds extra weight to this zone. A break below that opens the door to $60.50, then $60.00, which aligns with the hourly 50 SMA, making it a confluent support zone where buyers are likely to step in. Further down, the next cushions are at $59.50 and then $59.00, which marks a deeper demand zone from early July.