FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD. Hello everyone. Another trading week has come to an end, and it turned out to be unusually boring and uneventful. We didn’t see any significant moves, even though many market participants were expecting that news would finally shake things up and give at least some kind of impulse. Yes, volatility did pick up a bit yesterday, but that spike was short-lived — the price quickly returned to previous levels, leaving behind neither a sustainable trend nor even a hint of a sentiment shift. Today fresh CME option reports were released, and now we can assess the balance of power for next week more concretely. The options market has priced in a straddle range between 1.15341–1.15786. Essentially, it is the breakout from this corridor that should show which direction the market is ready to move next. However, it’s important to note that the price is still holding above all key balance levels — both the current futures contract balance in the 1.14752–1.14700 range and other important marks. Formally, this keeps the priority on the buy side. It’s possible that the current situation is just an attempt to lure more bulls into a trap. As soon as they believe in a continued rise and start actively adding to their positions, a reversal down may well follow. In my view, the upside targets are still not fully worked out — there are remaining option levels at 1.16223–1.16314, which look attractive as potential targets. But here we’ll need to closely monitor fresh option volumes and the reaction at these levels. As for buying, it can be considered from the 1.15341 level. If the bulls manage to confidently break above 1.15786, the rise will most likely continue. At the same time, the overall option range allows the price to be pushed up to 1.17728, so I wouldn’t rush into selling at current levels, especially given that the price is still above the key balance areas. Now let’s look at the situation from the bears’ point of view. If they manage to break the 1.15341 support, the price will likely continue to decline. The nearest targets in this case are in the 1.14782–1.14688 range. A breakout of this area will most likely lead to a shift in priority, and the bears will be able to take control of the market. In that case, the next target will be the lows of the overall option range, which is currently located at 1.12844. I haven’t processed the COT data yet — I plan to do that in the near future. After analyzing it, I’ll give a clearer view on the likely direction in the short term. Good luck.