FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Extends Bullish Momentum as Weak U.S. Jobs Data Hits the Dollar Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,341 per ounce, with the fundamental backdrop turning significantly more supportive for the precious metal after the latest U.S. employment report. The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 nonfarm jobs in July, compared with market expectations for an increase of around 80,000. June payroll growth was also revised sharply lower, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, largely because labor-force participation declined. The report weakened expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike and pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, creating a powerful tailwind for non-yielding gold. Reuters reports that market pricing for a September Fed hike fell to roughly 44%, from about 57% previously, although the inflation picture remains complicated. June PCE inflation was running at 3.7%, substantially above the Fed's 2% objective, meaning policymakers remain divided between responding to persistent price pressures and protecting a weakening labor market. The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its July meeting, with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly subsequently defended the decision to wait for additional inflation and economic data. Her comments highlight the central policy dilemma: tariffs and supply disruptions have contributed to inflation, but the latest employment figures suggest that restrictive monetary policy could increasingly weigh on growth. For gold, this combination is constructive because a less aggressive Fed reduces real-yield and opportunity-cost pressure. Geopolitical risk is another important support. Tensions surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East continue to encourage safe-haven demand, although signs of diplomatic progress have periodically reduced that premium. Reuters noted that gold had already reached a seven-week high before the latest surge as weaker employment data and easing rate-hike expectations combined to boost demand. Technical Analysis — H4 Structure Favors Buyers Above $4,300 On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has developed a strong short-term bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows following the breakout through the $4,300 psychological barrier. The current $4,341 price is close to the latest recovery highs, meaning momentum remains positive, but the market is also entering an area where profit-taking can emerge. Recent price action shows that buyers have successfully defended the $4,300-$4,320 region, while the latest intraday advance reached approximately $4,350, reinforcing that area as the immediate resistance zone. Independent market commentary also identifies a bullish H4 structure, with $4,300 acting as an important breakout level and $4,350-$4,370 as the next resistance region. Moving-average behavior is supportive: price is holding above the short-term moving-average structure, while momentum remains positive following the sharp post-NFP acceleration. However, traders should avoid interpreting the rally as an invitation to chase price aggressively at $4,341 because the market has already moved considerably in a short period. The immediate support zone is around $4,320-$4,300, followed by deeper support near $4,270-$4,250. A sustained H4 close above $4,350 would strengthen the bullish continuation scenario and expose $4,400-$4,420 as the next major upside area. Conversely, a decisive H4 break below $4,300 would weaken the immediate bullish structure and increase the probability of a corrective move toward $4,250 and potentially $4,200.

The preferred bias is bullish while gold remains above $4,300. Rather than buying aggressively at the current $4,341 price, a more attractive long entry would be a controlled pullback into the $4,315-$4,325 area followed by bullish H4 confirmation; the protective stop-loss can be placed around $4,285, with an initial take-profit at $4,365 and a secondary target near $4,400-$4,420. Alternatively, an H4 close above $4,350-$4,360 followed by a successful retest would provide a breakout-style long entry, with risk managed below $4,320 and upside toward $4,400. For the longer-term trading plan, the preferred strategy remains buying meaningful corrections rather than chasing extended rallies: an accumulation zone around $4,250-$4,300, with a wider stop around $4,150, offers a potential path toward $4,500-$4,600 if the Federal Reserve becomes less hawkish and the dollar continues weakening. On the bearish side, a short-term short should only be considered if gold produces a clear rejection from $4,350-$4,400 and subsequently breaks below $4,300; such a setup could target $4,250 and then $4,200, with a protective stop above approximately $4,430.