FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAUUSD) rose slightly last week, but the price action was frankly heavy. I wouldn’t bet much on an update of the highs: safe-haven assets are in no hurry to grow, and the dollar weakened only slightly on weak US unemployment data. On the 4-hour chart there is formally an upward structure, but toward the close the market was clearly being dragged down. On Monday at the open we may well see a gap to the south, given the lack of any peace agreements between the US and Iran. Technically the asset is extremely overheated — RSI(14) is at 75.38, indicating strong overbought conditions. There is a clear excess of buyers now, and when the crowd piles into one side, the market usually behaves exactly the opposite. Therefore, I personally expect a decline with a renewal of the lows. The first target is support at 4294.55. If we consolidate below, sellers will easily push the price to 4000.00, and after that we may go all the way down to the 3500.00 area. Good luck to everyone!