GBP/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement shows a technical trend that tends to be bullish, although in the short term, the price is facing significant resistance at 1.3505. The price was last seen around 1.3486, after previously moving up and testing the 1.3505 area. The movement structure since late July indicates that buyers still have relatively strong control, especially after the price managed to break out of the consolidation phase and return above the 100- and 200-day moving averages. However, the price's current position is very close to resistance, making the potential for a short-term correction still worth considering. Looking at the price trajectory since mid-June, GBP/USD has experienced significant selling pressure. A sharp decline around June 17th took the price from the 1.3433 area to the 1.3180–1.3210 range. After reaching this area, bearish pressure began to subside, and the price entered a bottoming phase. From late June to early July, the price slowly formed a higher low structure and began to move upward. This change in character became even more apparent when the price broke through the 1.3331 area and then moved towards 1.3433. From a price action perspective, this condition indicates a recovery process that later developed into an uptrend. The position of the 100-day moving average (MA), shown by the blue line, is a key indicator in assessing GBP/USD's medium-term momentum. On the chart, the 100-day moving average (MA) is currently in the 1.3390–1.3400 range and slopes upward. The price is quite far above this line, so the 100-day moving average (MA) currently acts as dynamic support. This indicates that the bullish momentum has not been significantly damaged. As long as the price correction does not decisively penetrate the 100-day moving average (MA), the medium-term bullish bias can remain.
Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), shown by the red line, is slightly below the 100-day moving average (MA), around the 1.3380–1.3390 area. The 200-day moving average (MA) previously declined when GBP/USD was under bearish pressure, but is now flattening and slowly trending upward. The 100-day moving average (MA) positioning above the 200-day moving average (MA) represents a positive technical development. This indicates that medium-term momentum is beginning to outperform the previous long-term momentum. With the price also above both moving averages, the current technical structure favors a bullish scenario over a bearish one. The 1.3433 area is a crucial horizontal support area. This level previously served as resistance that buyers had to overcome, but once successfully breached, it has the potential to transform into support. The chart shows the price reacting several times around this area before continuing its upward movement. As long as GBP/USD can hold above 1.3433, the bullish structure remains relatively healthy. Even if a correction occurs from the current level, a decline towards 1.3433 can be considered a normal retracement as long as a bullish response occurs around that level. The nearest resistance level is at 1.3505. This level is of primary concern because recent prices have approached and even tested this area several times but have not yet been able to make a convincing breakout. This situation indicates supply or profit-taking by sellers around 1.3505. If the H4 candlestick breaks through 1.3505 and closes strongly above it, the chances of further upside will increase. The next resistance target is around 1.3557, which is the main horizontal resistance on the chart. The 1.3557 area has the potential to become the next bullish target if a breakout of 1.3505 is confirmed. However, if the price fails to break through 1.3505 and instead forms a bearish rejection, GBP/USD could potentially experience a correction towards 1.3433. Such a correction is still considered healthy as long as the 1.3433 level can be maintained. In fact, if the price pulls back to 1.3433 and then forms a bullish rejection pattern or a higher low, this condition could provide the basis for buyers to retest 1.3505. Below 1.3433 lies the next support area at 1.3331. This level is much more important in the event of a deeper correction because it is not too far from the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Thus, there is a confluence between horizontal support and moving averages around 1.3331–1.3390. If the price falls into this area, the price action response will be crucial. As long as buyers are able to defend this area, the medium-term bullish structure still has a chance to persist. Conversely, a strong break below 1.3331 would indicate that the bullish momentum is starting to lose strength. The next support level is around 1.3267, followed by 1.3211 and 1.3139. The 1.3267 area is a key part of the previous price structure as it served as a consolidation point before GBP/USD resumed its recovery. Meanwhile, 1.3211 provides stronger support as it is located near the base area formed during the previous decline. If the price falls back below 1.3211, the bullish structure formed since late June will be seriously damaged. The 1.3139 level is the last visible support level on the chart and is an area to watch for if a larger bearish trend reversal occurs. From a recent price action perspective, GBP/USD is still showing a fairly constructive pattern. After a strong rebound in late July, the price managed to rise towards the 1.3470–1.3505 area. Over the past few days, the price has moved relatively sideways near resistance, forming a consolidation just below the 1.3505 area. This consolidation can have two possible outcomes. If buyers are able to maintain the price above the 1.3433 support level and buying pressure increases again, the consolidation could become an accumulation phase before a breakout. Conversely, if the price continues to fail to break through 1.3505 and begins forming lower highs, a correction towards 1.3433 becomes a more realistic scenario. In terms of momentum, the price's presence above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) gives buyers an advantage. However, the considerable distance between the price and these two moving averages also increases the risk of a pullback. Therefore, pursuing a buy position just below 1.3505 carries a greater risk than waiting for confirmation of a breakout or waiting for a correction to support. A valid breakout above 1.3505 would signal further bullish momentum, potentially leading to a move towards 1.3557. Meanwhile, a rejection at 1.3505 followed by a decline towards 1.3433 needs to be monitored to determine whether the support level is capable of generating buying.
