FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD. Hi everyone! I decided to do a small analysis on the euro futures (EUR/USD), relying exclusively on the numbers — volumes and open interest (Open Int). Data from December 2023 to August 2026. The picture is quite interesting, let’s go step by step. Global context. From the beginning of 2024 we went from 1.06 to a peak of 1.2110 in January 2026. An increase of almost 1400 points. But at the beginning of the year the chart started drawing a classic "Head and Shoulders". And now it seems we are going through the decline from the "neckline". The trend on the higher timeframes has started to break downward. What volumes and open interest are saying. The most interesting points. In March 2025, when the price was flying into the 1.08 area, volumes were shooting up to 450–500k. That was a real capitulation — people were panicking at the bottom. That’s exactly when the big players were building positions. From September 2025 to January 2026 during the rally, Open Int was steadily creeping up from 600k to 890k. This is classic accumulation of long positions, not just hype. The price was rising confidently. In January 2026 at the 1.2110 peak, open interest reached its maximum (883k), and volumes were huge. This looks like distribution — bulls are taking profit while bears start entering shorts. Now, in August 2026, the price has dropped to 1.1550. And here’s what matters: Open Int is falling rapidly (already 750k), and volumes on the decline are modest (85–140k). This is not a panic sell-off, it’s just an exit from positions. The big players are closing longs without trying to push the price up. The pressure is bearish. Key levels now. Resistance is in the 1.1600–1.1630 zone. As long as we stay below this line, it’s too early to think about buying. The nearest support is 1.1520. If it breaks, the road opens further down to the 1.1450 area, and the next major target is the 1.1200–1.1000 range, where there was a large consolidation in mid-2025. What the candles show over the last few days. It’s all gloomy for longs here. On August 10 the price opened higher and closed almost at the lows (1.15585). This is a bearish candle, sellers are controlling the evening session. Locally the price is testing support. Bottom line. The picture is bearish. The trend is down, open interest is falling, and buying volumes are not increasing. Until the price returns above 1.1860, I’m only considering selling on bounces to resistance in the bigger picture. Wishing everyone successful trading!