EUR/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the EUR/USD H4 timeframe chart, the current price movement indicates a bullish trend, although in the very short term, consolidation is starting to appear after the price reached a key resistance area. The latest price is around 1.1541, still quite strong above the blue 100-day moving average (MA) and the red 200-day moving average (MA). The moving average structure and price action on the chart show that EUR/USD has undergone a significant change in character compared to mid- to late-June. After previously experiencing bearish pressure and moving down from the 1.16 area to around 1.1320, the pair managed to form a base and then stage a fairly aggressive recovery. This recovery has now brought the price back to the 1.15 area. At the start of the period seen on the chart, EUR/USD was around 1.16 before experiencing a sharp decline. This selling pressure caused the price to break through several support areas and move well below the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA). The 100-day moving average (MA) at that time was moving down and below the 200-day moving average (MA), reflecting seller dominance. The price then reached a low around 1.1324, which served as key support on the chart structure. After reaching this area, selling pressure began to lose momentum, and the price entered a prolonged consolidation phase. This phase laid the groundwork for a trend reversal that developed quite strongly in late July. The structural change began to emerge when EUR/USD successfully broke through the 1.1434 area. This level had previously served as resistance, limiting price gains on several occasions. After being broken through, the price then moved higher and began to rise above the 200-day moving average (MA). Bullish momentum became clearer when the price maintained its position above the 200-day moving average (MA) and then broke through the 100-day moving average (MA). This indicates that the medium-term price average is beginning to shift in favor of buyers. Currently, the 100-day moving average (MA) is seen around 1.1490–1.1500, while the 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below, around 1.1470–1.1480. The 100-day moving average (MA) has moved upward and is above the 200-day moving average (MA). This configuration represents a significant change from the previous bearish structure. When the 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA) and both begin to trend upward, this condition typically indicates increasing bullish momentum on a moderate level. The price also being above both moving averages further strengthens this interpretation. Therefore, as long as EUR/USD can maintain the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA) area, the recovery trend still has a strong technical basis.
The nearest resistance level of concern is 1.1580. This level clearly represents horizontal resistance because it previously served as a price reaction area. EUR/USD has successfully risen from around 1.1375 to the 1.15 area and has attempted to approach 1.1580 several times. However, each time it approached this area, selling pressure was evident, causing the price to correct slightly. This condition indicates that 1.1580 is a fairly strong supply zone. If buyers successfully break through this level with a solid H4 candle and maintain the price above it, the opportunity to reach the next resistance level at 1.1621 will increase. The 1.1621 level is a major resistance level on the chart. This area is close to the peak of the movement in the early period of the chart and is a crucial boundary for the continuation of the bullish trend. If EUR/USD manages to break through 1.1580 and move towards 1.1621, the market will retest the price area that previously served as the starting point for significant bearish pressure. A breakout of 1.1621 would be a very significant bullish signal, indicating that buyers have successfully reclaimed the previous peak. Under these conditions, the bullish structure on the H4 timeframe will strengthen, opening the possibility of a new high forming. However, before discussing potential upside towards 1.1621, EUR/USD needs to navigate consolidation around 1.1540–1.1550. The latest price is hovering around 1.1541 after previously moving closer to 1.1570–1.1580. A small decline from this area cannot yet be categorized as a bearish reversal. As long as the price continues to form higher lows and does not break through key support, the movement is more appropriately viewed as profit-taking or a normal correction within an uptrend. The closest, most important support level is at 1.1514. This level is a horizontal support level that currently serves as the boundary between short-term bullish momentum and the potential for a deeper correction. If the price can hold above 1.1514, buyers still have the opportunity to retest 1.1580. Furthermore, if a pullback towards 1.1514 occurs, followed by a bullish rejection, this area could be an interesting zone to observe for the reappearance of buying pressure. Conversely, a convincing H4 candlestick closing below 1.1514 would signal weakening bullish momentum. Below 1.1514 lies the 100-day moving average (MA), which is located around 1.1490–1.1500. The proximity of the moving average to the horizontal support makes the 1.1490–1.1514 area a significant technical area. If the price corrects but manages to hold within this zone, the bullish trend remains relatively secure. The 100-day MA can serve as dynamic support and an indicator of whether buyers are able to maintain the upward trend. As long as the price remains above the 100-day MA, the bullish trend remains dominant. If the 100-day moving average (MA) is successfully broken below, attention will shift to the 200-day moving average (MA) around 1.1470–1.1480. The 200-day moving average (MA) is a crucial indicator for assessing the direction of the intermediate trend. A decline towards the 200-day moving average (MA) does not automatically mean the end of the bullish trend, but if the price breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA) and then fails to recover above it, the recovery structure will begin to lose strength. In this scenario, the horizontal support level of 1.1434 becomes the next level to watch. 1.1434 is significant because it served as key resistance before the bullish breakout in late July. Once broken, this level has the potential to shift to support. This concept of resistance-to-support transition can be used as a guideline for interpreting the EUR/USD correction. As long as the price remains above 1.1434, the higher lows structure during the recovery phase will remain relatively intact. Conversely, a break above 1.1434 would indicate that the correction is starting to deepen. The next support level is at 1.1375, which was a key consolidation zone before the sharp rise in late July. This level could become the next line of defense if selling pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, major support lies around 1.1324, a low point on the chart. As long as the price remains well above this level, the overall bullish reversal hasn't experienced extreme structural damage. However, if 1.1324 is broken, the bullish structure formed since late July will be seriously damaged, and the market bias could potentially shift back to bearish. From a price action perspective, the current development of EUR/USD is quite interesting, as it combines higher highs, higher lows, resistance breakouts, and a shift in the 100-day moving average (MA) relative to the 200-day moving average (MA). After reaching a bottom around 1.1324, the price did not immediately rise in one direction, but rather built a base. This provided a better foundation for a bullish move. The subsequent rally at the end of July successfully pushed the price above the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, shifting the market structure from bearish to bullish. However, traders should be wary of a potential false breakout around 1.1580. Prices approaching major resistance don't always immediately break through it. If sellers become active again, EUR/USD could experience a pullback towards 1.1514 or even the 100-day moving average (MA). Such a correction is still considered healthy as long as support holds. Conversely, if the price manages to break through 1.1580 with strong momentum, the bullish scenario will receive additional confirmation, and the 1.1621 target will become more technically realistic. Thus, the 1.1514 to 100-day moving average (MA) area can be viewed as a key resistance zone for buyers, while 1.1580 represents the main gateway to bullish continuation. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA), the likelihood of a recovery is stronger than the potential for a bearish reversal. However, if the price falls below the 200-day moving average (MA) and 1.1434, increased caution is required, as the bullish momentum could transition into a broader correction.
