EUR/USD Timeframe H4: The EUR/USD currency pair's movement on the H4 timeframe chart shows a significant shift in market structure. After experiencing prolonged selling pressure from mid-June to the end of July 2026, the pair began to show signs of a reversal, marked by the emergence of very strong upward momentum in late July. This trend change was clearly visible in the price movement, which successfully broke through several key resistance areas and then held above those levels. The use of the 100 Moving Average (MA 100) and 200 Moving Average (MA 200) provides a clearer picture of the ongoing trend direction. In the initial phase of the chart, the 100 MA, indicated by the blue line, was below the 200 MA, indicated by the red line. This condition indicates that the medium-term trend was still dominated by bearish sentiment. However, a change began to appear when the price experienced a significant surge in late July. This increase pushed the price through the 200 MA, followed by the 100 MA, which began to reverse upward. Currently, the 100-day moving average (MA) has successfully moved above the 200-day moving average (MA), technically known as a golden cross. This signal is often considered an early indication that the market is entering a bullish phase. The candlestick pattern shows the price movement forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. This pattern is one of the main characteristics of an uptrend. Although the price has experienced a correction in recent days, the resulting selling pressure has not been able to alter the established bullish structure.
The first support level visible on the chart is located in the 1.1514 area. This zone is the closest support level currently being tested by the price. This area previously served as resistance before being broken through by buyers. In technical analysis, a successfully broken resistance often transforms into new support. Therefore, the 1.1514 area plays a crucial role in maintaining the continuation of the uptrend. If selling pressure intensifies, the next support level is located at 1.1434. This area has a high level of significance due to its proximity to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The presence of two moving averages around this level makes it a fairly strong dynamic support level. The next support level is located at 1.1375. This level represents the lower boundary of the consolidation phase that formed before the price surge in late July. If the price falls below this level, buyers are likely to react, attempting to maintain upward momentum. Meanwhile, the strongest support is around 1.1324. This area is the lowest point that serves as the foundation for the ongoing bullish trend. A break below this level would signal that the uptrend is starting to lose strength. In terms of resistance, the 1.1521 area is the first obstacle currently being tested by the price. Although the price is still moving around this level, the market has not shown a strong enough impetus to continue rising. The next resistance is located at 1.1580. This level is a primary target for market participants because it represents the highest point formed in recent weeks. If the price can break through this level, the opportunity to continue rising to a higher area will increase. The relationship between the price and the 100-day moving average (MA) also provides important information. Prices above the 100-day moving average (MA) indicate that the medium-term trend is still dominated by buyers. Furthermore, the 100-day moving upwards slope indicates that bullish momentum is maintained. On the other hand, the 200-day moving average (MA) has begun to flatten, indicating that the long-term trend is undergoing a transition phase. Previously, the 200-day moving average (MA) had been consistently moving downwards. However, after a fairly aggressive rally, the 200-day moving average (MA) began to stabilize. This is often an early indication that the market is building the foundation for a new trend. Looking at price behavior over the past few days, it appears the market is in a consolidation phase above the 1.1514 support level. This type of consolidation typically occurs after a very aggressive move. The market tends to need time to rebalance the power between buyers and sellers before determining its next direction. One factor to be wary of is the possibility of a false breakout. Although the current trend remains bullish, failure to break through the 1.1580 resistance level could trigger profit-taking, pushing the price back toward the support area. From a risk management perspective, the 1.1514 area is a crucial level to monitor. As long as the price remains above this level, the opportunity for an increase toward 1.1580 remains open. Conversely, if the price falls below this support level, a deeper correction toward 1.1434 is possible. The structural changes in the market that have occurred since late July are a key factor supporting the prospect of the euro strengthening against the US dollar. Although there is still selling pressure in the short term, buyer dominance still looks quite strong based on the price position against the 100 and 200 MA.
