EUR/USD Daily Timeframe: The EUR/USD currency pair's movement on the daily chart has shown quite interesting dynamics in recent months. After experiencing significant pressure in mid-June 2026, the pair has slowly recovered and regained upward momentum. However, the current price movement remains quite sensitive as EUR/USD is facing the confluence of the 100-day moving average (MA), the 200-day moving average (MA), and horizontal resistance, which poses a major obstacle to the continuation of the bullish trend. Based on the chart, the latest price is around 1.1570. This position indicates that the market is testing a crucial area. In technical analysis, the confluence of price, moving averages, and horizontal resistance often determines the direction of the next movement. Looking at the trend structure that has formed since February 2026, EUR/USD experienced a fairly strong increase, reaching the 1.1787 area. During this period, the price moved well above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA), reflecting strong buyer dominance. However, after reaching its peak, selling pressure began to increase, leading to a gradual price correction. The decline that occurred throughout May and June significantly changed the market structure. The price, which had previously been moving above both moving averages, finally broke through the 100-day moving average (MA), followed by a breakout of the 200-day moving average (MA). This event signaled that the bullish trend was losing strength. Selling pressure peaked in mid-June when EUR/USD fell to near 1.1375. This sharp decline briefly shifted market sentiment to bearish. However, towards the end of July, the price began to show signs of recovery. The recovery that occurred from late July to mid-August brought the price back closer to the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Interestingly, the two moving averages are now almost close together. The 100-day moving average, indicated by the blue line, still slopes downward, indicating that the medium-term trend remains under bearish pressure.
Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average, shown by the red line, has begun to flatten. The 200-day moving average's direction, becoming more horizontal, indicates that the long-term trend is entering a consolidation phase. When the 100-day and 200-day moving averages approach each other, the market is typically preparing for a larger movement. Currently, the price is hovering just above the 200-day moving average (MA). This is crucial because the 200-day moving average (MA) often serves as a key indicator used by investors to determine the direction of the long-term trend. If the price can stay above the 200-day moving average (MA), the chances of further upside are greater. However, the biggest challenge for buyers currently lies in the horizontal resistance level at 1.1570. This area has repeatedly acted as a barrier, preventing the price from continuing its upward movement. The latest candlestick pattern indicates that the market is attempting to break through this level but has not yet achieved a truly convincing close. Looking at the horizontal support and resistance lines on the chart, there are several key levels to watch. The nearest support level is at 1.1499. This area serves as a key support area because it was a consolidation point before the price moved higher in late July. If the price experiences further pressure and breaks through 1.1499, the next downside target will be the 1.1434 area. This support area is quite strong, having served as a rebound area several times during July 2026. If selling pressure persists, the 1.1375 area will become the next target. This level is crucial support because it marks the lowest point formed after the sharp decline in June 2026. The strongest support level on the chart is currently at 1.1324. If the price falls below this level, the short-term bullish structure will lose its validity, and the market could potentially re-enter a bearish trend. Regarding resistance, the first level to watch is 1.1621. A breakout of this level would signal that buyers are beginning to take control of the market. If the price manages to move above 1.1621, the next target is the 1.1686 area. Resistance at 1.1686 is crucial because it is close to the 100-day moving average (MA). Furthermore, this level was previously a support area, which then turned into resistance after the decline in May 2026. If the price manages to break through the 1.1686 area, the opportunity for an increase towards 1.1787 will be even greater. This area represents very strong resistance because it marks the peak price formed in April and May 2026. The highest upside target on the chart is 1.1848. If EUR/USD manages to reach this area, it can be said that a long-term bullish trend has re-established. In addition to analysis based on moving averages and support and resistance levels, candlestick patterns also provide interesting clues. Over the past few days, the price has moved within a relatively narrow range. This pattern often indicates an accumulation phase before a larger movement. The consolidation phase occurring around the 200-day moving average (MA) suggests the market is awaiting new catalysts, both fundamentally and in global market sentiment. In such conditions, traders typically wait for confirmation in the form of a resistance or support breakout before making a decision. From a technical perspective, the bullish scenario will be more dominant if the price is able to maintain its position above 1.1570 and continue rising towards 1.1621. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain its position and falls back below 1.1499, bearish pressure could potentially regain dominance.
