USD/CHF Timeframe H4: Based on price movements on the USD/CHF H4 timeframe chart, the current technical structure shows relatively attractive conditions, as the price is in a consolidation phase after experiencing a significant rise from the lower area. The last price was seen around 0.81123, while movements over the previous weeks showed USD/CHF reaching a high of around 0.82065 before experiencing a sharp correction. Using the 100-day moving average (MA), 200-day moving average (MA), and several horizontal support and resistance lines visible on the chart, the current market condition can be categorized as a consolidation phase with a bullish trend that is starting to lose short-term momentum. Looking at price movements since mid-June, USD/CHF has previously formed a fairly clear upward pattern. The price moved up from around 0.7910 and then broke through several key resistance levels to reach the 0.8130 area. This increase indicates that buying pressure was dominating the market. After experiencing several corrections from late June to early July, the price regained momentum and continued rising in mid- to late July. The peak of this movement occurred when the price reached the 0.82065 area, which also serves as the strongest horizontal resistance on the chart. The 0.82065 area is significant because it represented the upper limit of the previous rally. When the price reached this area, significant selling pressure was observed, leading to a sharp reversal. The price then fell rapidly, breaking through the 0.81621 area and moving towards the 0.80557 support level. This rapid decline indicates that the 0.82065 resistance level is not merely a minor obstacle, but rather a strong supply zone. Therefore, as long as USD/CHF is unable to break through and maintain above 0.82065, the potential for rejection from this area remains a concern. From the perspective of the 100-day moving average (MA), the blue moving average line is seen around the 0.8110–0.8120 area. During the previous bullish phase, the 100-day moving average (MA) moved upward and served as dynamic support for the price. However, after the sharp decline from 0.82065, the slope of the 100-day moving average (MA) began to flatten. This indicates that medium-term bullish momentum is waning. Interestingly, the price is currently moving very close to the 100-day moving average (MA) and has been seen breaking through it from above and below several times. This situation indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
The area around 0.81123, which is also a horizontal level on the chart, is an important area to monitor. The price is currently hovering around this level and is close to the 100-day moving average (MA). If the H4 candlestick can hold above 0.81123 and then form a higher high past the 0.81315 area, the chances of further strengthening will increase. In this scenario, the next resistance level is at 0.81621. A valid breakout of 0.81621 could open the door for the price to retest the key resistance level at 0.82065. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain the 0.81123 area and continues to move below the 100-day moving average (MA), short-term bearish pressure could increase. The first support level to watch is 0.80557. This level appears to be a key resistance area after the sharp correction in late July. When the price previously reached this area, buyers were able to respond, leading to a recovery towards the 0.8130 area. Therefore, if USD/CHF falls back towards 0.80557, the price reaction around this level will be an important indicator in determining whether the correction is temporary or turning into a deeper bearish trend. Next is the 200-day moving average (MA), shown by the red line and currently located around the 0.8085–0.8090 area. Technically, the 200-day moving average (MA) remains below the price and slopes upwards. This indicates that the medium-term trend structure has not yet fully shifted to bearish. As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), the bullish bias remains technically sound. However, if the price decisively breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA) and then becomes resistance, the market structure will shift to a more defensive position, increasing the potential for a decline towards the next support level. The divergence between the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day moving average (MA) is also worth noting. The 100-day moving average (MA) remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), which is generally a bullish configuration. However, the gap between the two is starting to narrow compared to the previous upward phase. This condition indicates that the bullish trend is still present, but its strength is not as strong as when the price was in a rally phase. If the 100-day moving average (MA) rises again and moves away from the 200-day moving average (MA), the bullish momentum will receive further confirmation. Conversely, if the 100-day moving average (MA) continues to flatten or moves down, approaching the 200-day moving average (MA), the risk of a structural change to bearish will increase. Below the 0.80557 support level lies the 0.80088 level, which serves as the next horizontal support level. This level is important because it previously served as a consolidation area before the rally. If 0.80557 is successfully broken bearishly, the price has the potential to test 0.80088. A drop below 0.80088 would intensify selling pressure and open the door to the 0.79596 support level. Meanwhile, the 0.79101 level represents further support and the base area of movement on the chart. As long as the price hasn't broken through this support level, the USD/CHF correction can still be considered a retracement within a larger upward trend. In terms of resistance, in addition to 0.81621 and 0.82065, the area around 0.81315 also poses short-term resistance. The price has stalled around this area several times in recent sessions. If buyers can push the price past 0.81315 with a strong H4 candle, the opportunity to move towards 0.81621 becomes even more open. However, if the price is rejected again from 0.81315, the market will likely remain in a sideways pattern between the 0.8080–0.8130 area. Such conditions typically require confirmation of a breakout before the next direction can be read with more confidence. Overall, the USD/CHF structure on the H4 timeframe still shows a moderate bullish bias, but is in a consolidation phase. The 200-day moving average (MA) that is still rising and below the price provides support for the intermediate trend, while the 100-day moving average (MA) that is starting to flatten indicates that short-term upward momentum is weakening. The price's proximity to the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 0.81123 level makes this area a crucial balance zone.
