EUR/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the EUR/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement structure shows a significant change compared to the consolidation phase and bearish pressure seen in the previous period. The EUR/USD price is hovering around 1.16078, having experienced a strong rise from the lower area and successfully breaking through several important horizontal resistance levels. This condition indicates that bullish momentum remains the dominant force in the short to medium term. However, the price is now approaching important resistance at 1.16208, necessitating attention for a possible correction before the uptrend can resume. From the perspective of the 100-day Moving Average (MA 100), the 100-day moving average (MA 100), shown in blue, is located around 1.15146. The current price position, which is quite far above the 100-day MA, indicates that the medium-term trend has turned bullish. The 100-day MA previously experienced a downward phase when EUR/USD weakened from the 1.1600 area to the 1.1350–1.1400 range. However, after the price formed a bottom and recovered, the 100-day MA slope began to reverse upward. This change in direction is an important indication that the previously dominant selling pressure is losing its strength. More interestingly, the price is now above the 200-day moving average (MA), which is visible as the red line on the chart. The 200-day moving average (MA) is around the 1.1490–1.1500 area and has begun to move sideways and then slowly trend upward. The 100-day moving average (MA) position above the 200-day moving average (MA) provides further confirmation of a change in trend structure. In technical analysis, a situation where the medium-term MA is above the long-term MA generally indicates buyer dominance. As long as the price remains above these two moving averages, the bullish perspective on EUR/USD remains relatively stronger than the bearish scenario.
Price movements in recent weeks have also shown the formation of a higher low and higher high structure. After EUR/USD found strong support around 1.13843, the price recovered and then successfully broke through the 1.14454 resistance. This breakout is crucial because the 1.14454 area has previously served as an upper limit for price movement. After successfully passing it, EUR/USD strengthened again towards the 1.15146 area. This level then transformed into a key support level and is close to the 100-day moving average (MA). The confluence of the horizontal support and the 100-day moving average (MA) makes the 1.15146 area a key resistance zone for buyers. Next, the price broke through the resistance level of 1.15798. This breakout was quite significant because this level was a horizontal resistance level that had previously served as the upper limit of price consolidation. After the breakout, EUR/USD did not immediately reverse but continued to form a higher high until it reached the 1.16078 area. This indicates that the breakout had strong momentum support. Technically, as long as the H4 candlesticks can hold above 1.15798, this level has the potential to transform into new support. The closest and most important resistance level to watch is now at 1.16208. This level is the highest level visible on the chart and serves as the last barrier before EUR/USD potentially enters higher price territory. The current price is only about 13 pips from this resistance. Therefore, short-term conditions need to be monitored closely, as a too-rapid rise towards resistance could trigger profit-taking. If the price fails to break through 1.16208 and forms a rejection pattern on the H4 timeframe, a correction towards 1.15798 is quite likely. Conversely, if EUR/USD produces a solid H4 candlestick and closes above 1.16208, the breakout could signal a strong bullish continuation. A breakout of resistance with supportive volume and momentum would indicate that buyers have successfully overcome selling pressure at the previous peak. Under such conditions, further attention should be directed to the formation of new resistance, as the chart does not yet show a higher horizontal level with as clear strength as 1.16208. In terms of support, 1.15798 is the most important level in the short term. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish structure remains intact. If a correction occurs from 1.16078 or 1.16208, the price reaction around 1.15798 will be a key indicator in assessing whether the correction is temporary or starting to turn into a trend reversal. If 1.15798 withstands selling pressure and a bullish candlestick appears, the price will likely test 1.16208 again. If the 1.15798 support level is decisively broken, attention will shift to 1.15146. This level is even more important because, in addition to being horizontal support, it is also close to the 100-day moving average (MA). Therefore, the 1.15146 area can be considered a technical confluence zone. If the price simply pulls back towards this area and then rises again, this could be an opportunity for the bullish trend to resume. Conversely, consistent H4 closes below 1.15146 would be a warning that bullish momentum is weakening. The next support level is at 1.14454, a key level in the previous movement structure. If EUR/USD loses 1.15146, a decline towards 1.14454 could still be categorized as a deeper correction within the medium-term trend. However, if 1.14454 is also broken below, the bullish structure on the H4 chart will begin to experience more serious damage. Under such conditions, the market could potentially move back towards the 1.13843 area, which previously served as a key basis for a rebound. Overall, the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA) indicators provide strong support for the bullish scenario. The price is above both moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA), and both are beginning to show an upward trend. Coupled with the price successfully breaking through the 1.14454 and 1.15798 resistance levels, the current EUR/USD technical structure indicates a fairly clear bullish phase. However, the price's proximity to the 1.16208 resistance level still requires consideration. Traders should not only view price increases as a signal to pursue long positions, but also pay attention to price reactions when testing key resistance levels.
