BITCOIN H4 Timeframe: Bitcoin's movement on the H4 chart shows a quite interesting phase, as the price has begun to rise again after previously experiencing strong selling pressure. Based on the chart, the current price is around 64,385 and is attempting to break through the resistance area adjacent to the moving average line. The use of the 100-day moving average (MA) and 200-day moving average (MA) in this analysis is crucial because both indicators can provide insight into the medium-term trend direction and identify dynamic support and resistance areas. The 100-day moving average (MA), marked with the blue line, appears to be slightly below the current price, while the 200-day moving average (MA), marked with the red line, is in an area nearly parallel to the 100-day moving average. The position of these two indicators indicates that Bitcoin is in a transition phase. Over the past few days, the price has moved below both moving averages, indicating bearish pressure. However, the increase in the last few candles indicates a shift in sentiment, shifting toward bullish. Looking at the movement structure from mid-July to mid-August, Bitcoin is actually still moving within a fairly broad consolidation pattern. The highest peak during that period was around 66,982, while the lowest area was around 61,667. This relatively large range reflects the high volatility that remains a key characteristic of the crypto market. The nearest resistance area is at 64,650. This zone is the first barrier the price must break through to continue strengthening. This resistance is not just a regular horizontal line, but also adjacent to the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs). Therefore, this area possesses considerable technical strength. If Bitcoin can convincingly break through 64,650, the next upside target is the 65,474 area. This resistance has previously served as a price reversal point several times. In early August, the price briefly reached this area before experiencing a sharp correction.
Above 65,474, the next resistance area is around 66,234. This area is a crucial zone because it previously served as a distribution point that triggered significant selling pressure. If the price successfully breaks through this area, the opportunity to reach the highest resistance level around 66,982 will be even greater. On the other hand, the nearest support is at 63,259. This area is quite interesting because the price has bounced off it several times over the past few days. This indicates that buyers are still holding the area as an accumulation point. If the 63,259 support level fails to hold, selling pressure could potentially send the price down to 62,516. This support area is quite strong, having halted price declines several times from late July to mid-August. The strongest support in the current movement structure is located around 61,667. This area serves as the main foundation of the medium-term trend. A break below this level could potentially shift the market structure to a more bearish level and open the door to a deeper decline. Analysis of the 100-day moving average (MA) shows that the line is beginning to slope downward after previously declining. This indicates that bearish pressure is weakening. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA) tends to move flat, indicating that the market still lacks a strong direction. Interestingly, the price has now managed to move above the 100-day moving average (MA). In technical analysis, this condition often signals an early trend change. However, stronger confirmation will only emerge if the price is able to stay above the 200-day moving average (MA) for the next few trading sessions. It should be noted that the intersection of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages does not yet indicate a strong bullish signal. The two lines are still moving very close together, so the possibility of a sideways movement remains quite high. In other words, Bitcoin is currently in the direction-determining phase. From a price action perspective, the pattern formed is also quite interesting. After forming a series of lower lows in mid-August, the price began forming a pattern of higher lows. This pattern is often an early indication that buyers are regaining control of the market. The latest upward momentum is also supported by the emergence of a relatively long bullish candle, indicating increased buying interest. However, this increase still needs to be tested by resistance around 64,650. If rejection occurs in this area, the price will likely re-enter a consolidation phase. The bullish scenario will strengthen if the price breaks through 64,650 and then remains above the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Under such conditions, an upward target of 65,474 to 66,234 will become more realistic. Conversely, if the price fails to maintain its position above 64,000 and moves back below both moving averages, selling pressure could increase. A decline towards 63,259 or even 62,516 is a scenario that market players should anticipate. Bitcoin's extremely high volatility also requires traders to be more disciplined in risk management. Although signs of recovery are starting to appear, confirmation of the trend still depends heavily on the price's ability to break through the key resistance currently located just above the market's current position.
