GBP/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price movement structure still shows a fairly strong bullish trend. The latest price is around 1.3533, after previously experiencing a gradual increase from the 1.3280–1.3330 area to approach the important resistance level around 1.3570. This movement indicates that buying pressure remains dominant, especially since the price has formed a series of higher lows and higher highs since late July. However, the current price position approaching the 1.3570 resistance level places the market in an area that requires greater attention, as the opportunity for consolidation or a short-term correction is increasingly open. From a moving average perspective, the 100-day moving average (MA), indicated by the blue line, is below the price and is currently moving upward with a fairly clear slope. This condition is a positive indication of the intermediate trend structure on the H4 timeframe. The price is not only above the 100-day moving average (MA), but has also made the area around it a defensive zone during corrections. As long as the price can stay above the 100-day moving average (MA), the bullish bias remains relatively intact. The 100-day moving average (MA) moving further away from the price does indicate upward momentum, but it also indicates that the price is starting to experience a significant deviation from its average value. Under these conditions, a correction towards the 100-day MA remains a reasonable scenario if buying momentum begins to weaken. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA, shown with a red line, also indicates constructive development. The 200-day MA is slowly rising and is positioned below the 100-day MA. The 100-day MA positioning above the 200-day MA is a configuration that supports a bullish trend because it indicates that the shorter-term price average has moved above the longer-term price average. Furthermore, the slopes of both moving averages are pointing upward. This confirms that the GBP/USD rally is not simply a short-term rebound but has developed into a more organized uptrend structure on the H4 timeframe.
The 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) are also crucial if GBP/USD experiences a correction. Based on the position of the lines on the chart, the 100-day moving average is approximately 1.3470–1.3480, while the 200-day moving average is around 1.3420–1.3430. Therefore, these areas can be considered dynamic support. If the price experiences only a mild correction and then returns to a positive response around the 100-day moving average, this could indicate a healthy bullish trend. Conversely, if the price breaks through the 100-day moving average with a strong H4 candle and then moves towards the 200-day moving average, attention should be paid to the 200-day moving average's ability to maintain its bullish structure. A convincing breakout of the 200-day moving average would signal a more serious breakdown in upward momentum. In terms of horizontal support and resistance, the 1.3570 level is the closest major resistance level to the current price. This level appears to be the upper limit of the recent price movement, after the price briefly rose to that area and then experienced slight selling pressure. Technically, 1.3570 is a crucial level because GBP/USD's successful breakout and hold above it will open the door to a further bullish phase. A valid breakout should be marked not only by intrabar penetration but also by a four-hour candle closing above that resistance. If this occurs, the 1.3570 level has the potential to transform into new support when the price retests. Below the 1.3570 resistance lies the 1.3533 area, which on the current chart represents the last price level. This level can be viewed as minor support and a short-term equilibrium area. If GBP/USD is able to maintain trading above 1.3533, bullish pressure still has room to retest 1.3570. However, if the price fails to hold and breaks below 1.3533, the likelihood of a correction towards the next support level around 1.3496 will increase. The 1.3496 level is quite attractive because it is located close to the 100-day moving average (MA) and has previously served as a price zone with significant trading activity. The next horizontal support level is located around 1.3398. This level is important because it is located near the 200-day moving average (MA) and is an area that previously served as a point of market equilibrium. If the correction deepens, 1.3398 could potentially become a key support level to determine whether the H4 bullish trend remains intact. As long as the price can find demand around 1.3398, the higher lows structure is still likely to be maintained. Conversely, consistent H4 closes below 1.3398 would signal that the uptrend is losing strength and GBP/USD could move towards lower support. The 1.3331 level also serves as important horizontal support. On the chart, this area relates to previous price movements, particularly when GBP/USD experienced selling pressure in late July before staging a strong rebound. Therefore, 1.3331 can be viewed as an intermediate support level. If the price falls to this level, the market will need to pay closer attention to the candlestick response. A strong bullish reaction from 1.3331 will maintain the possibility of a higher low pattern forming, while a breakout could shift the technical structure from neutral to bearish. The next support levels are at 1.3267 and 1.3211. These two levels are lower levels and will only become relevant if corrective pressure on GBP/USD develops significantly. The 1.3267 level, in particular, was the base of consolidation before the sharp price rally in late July. Meanwhile, 1.3211 represents further support and could become an important lower limit of the bullish structure that has been forming since late June. As long as the price remains well above these two levels, the GBP/USD intermediate trend can remain positive. Looking at the overall price action, GBP/USD has been exhibiting a clear bullish momentum buildup since late July. After a brief dip towards the 1.3267–1.3280 area, a strong reversal emerged, breaking through 1.3331, 1.3398, and then heading towards the 1.3496 area. After breaking through this resistance, the price continued to form higher highs until reaching the 1.3570 area. This pattern suggests that buyers are gradually gaining control of the market structure. However, the recent candles appear to be consolidating near resistance, suggesting the market is likely entering a supply testing phase. In a bullish scenario, the primary focus should be on the price's ability to break through 1.3570. If a valid breakout occurs and the price is able to hold above this level, the uptrend has the potential to continue towards the new resistance area formed after the breakout. In such a scenario, a pullback towards 1.3570, which then turns into support, could provide further confirmation that the breakout is of good quality. Conversely, if the price repeatedly fails to break through 1.3570 and forms a bearish rejection, the likelihood of a correction towards 1.3496 will increase. Such a correction cannot be considered a trend reversal as long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the higher low structure remains intact. A new bearish scenario gains more weight if the price breaks through 1.3496 while simultaneously losing the 100-day moving average (MA). If this occurs, the next focus will be on the 200-day moving average (MA) and the horizontal support at 1.3398. A break above 1.3398 would then be a much more serious signal, as it could indicate a change in the bullish H4 trend structure. In such a situation, the 1.3331 area becomes the next support target. Therefore, the 100-day moving average (MA), 200-day moving average (MA), and horizontal support at 1.3496 and 1.3398 play a crucial role in determining whether the correction is temporary or develops into a trend reversal.
