GBP/USD Timeframe H4: Based on the GBP/USD chart on the H4 timeframe, the technical structure of this currency pair still shows a fairly strong bullish trend. The last price was around 1.3559, with the latest movement seen approaching the key resistance area at 1.3570. Overall, the price development since late June shows a structural shift from an accumulation and consolidation phase to a more organized uptrend. Key confirmation of this condition is seen in the price's current position above the 100-day moving average (MA 100) and 200-day moving average (MA 200). Furthermore, both moving averages are sloping upward, so the intermediate trend bias on the H4 chart still favors a bullish scenario over a bearish one. Early in the chart, GBP/USD briefly rose from the 1.3139 area and gradually broke through several horizontal resistance levels. This rise then took the price towards the 1.3500 area before undergoing a correction. The corrective movement in mid-July was crucial as the price briefly fell and tested the area around 1.3331, approaching 1.3267. However, selling pressure failed to permanently alter the trend structure. After forming a base around this area, GBP/USD rebounded and successfully broke through the resistance level of 1.3398. This breakout signaled that buyers were regaining control and beginning to build a higher low and higher high structure on the H4 timeframe. The 100-day moving average (MA), shown as the blue line, is currently positioned around 1.3470–1.3480, while the 200-day moving average (MA), shown as the red line, is lower, around 1.3410–1.3430. The distance between the two moving averages is widening, with both trending upward. This is a healthy characteristic of a bullish trend, indicating stronger medium-term momentum compared to the previous period. The price remaining well above the 100-day moving average also indicates that any corrections thus far have been met with a response from buyers before reaching the 200-day moving average. The 100-day moving average (MA) is a dynamic resistance area worth monitoring for future developments. If GBP/USD corrects from 1.3559–1.3570, the 100-day moving average (MA) area around 1.3470–1.3480 has the potential to become the first dynamic support. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and forms a bullish candle or rejection in this area, the bullish H4 price structure can still be considered valid. Conversely, if the price decisively breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA) and closes below it within several H4 candles, the short-term bullish momentum will begin to lose strength, and the market could potentially enter a consolidation phase or a deeper correction.
The 200-day moving average (MA) is more important because it serves as an indicator of medium- to long-term trend direction. Currently, the 200-day moving average (MA) is below the price and also below the 100-day moving average (MA). This arrangement suggests a bullish configuration, especially since the 100-day moving average (MA) is above the 200-day moving average (MA). As long as the price remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), the decline is more accurately interpreted as a correction within an uptrend rather than a complete trend reversal. However, if a breakout of the 200-day moving average (MA) is accompanied by a change in price structure, with lower highs and lower lows, the bullish view should be re-evaluated. From a horizontal support and resistance perspective, 1.3570 is the closest resistance level and the most important level at the current price level. The chart shows that the price has moved around the 1.3550–1.3570 area several times and is currently testing the upper end of that zone. If GBP/USD manages to break through 1.3570 with a strong H4 candle and a clear close above that resistance, the breakout could confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. A resistance breakout should be assessed not only from momentary movements or wicks, but also from the price's ability to maintain its position above that level. If a valid breakout occurs, the 1.3570 area has the potential to transform into new support when the price retests. Below the current price lies support at 1.3496, which is the closest and most relevant horizontal level. This level is located near the 100-day moving average (MA), creating a confluence of horizontal support and dynamic support. This combination is usually more powerful than relying on a single indicator. If the price falls towards 1.3496 and then experiences buying pressure, this area could become an interesting zone to observe for potential higher lows. Conversely, if 1.3496 is firmly penetrated, attention can then shift to the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 1.3398 area. The 1.3398 level is the next important horizontal support level. This area previously acted as resistance during the price rally in late July and early August. Once successfully penetrated, this level could, in principle, transform into support. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average (MA) is also not too far below it, so the 1.3398-200-day moving average (MA) area can be viewed as a significant resistance zone. If a deeper correction occurs but buyers are still able to maintain the price within this area, the bullish H4 structure will not automatically be broken. The next support level is at 1.3331. This level is important because it relates to the consolidation area and price reaction seen in mid- to late July. A decline towards 1.3331 would indicate that the correction has deepened significantly beyond a simple pullback towards the 100-day moving average (MA). If 1.3331 fails to hold, the likelihood of a trend structure change will increase, and the market could potentially test the 1.3267 support level. Below this level are the 1.3211 and 1.3139 support levels, which are key areas of the previous movement structure. In terms of price action, recent developments indicate that buyers still dominate. After successfully passing the 1.3496 area, the price moved up towards 1.3570, and the last few candles have shown efforts to maintain its position near the high. This situation indicates buying pressure, although the proximity to the 1.3570 resistance level still requires consideration of the risk of a short-term correction. Prices that have experienced significant increases do not necessarily immediately continue the rally; consolidation below resistance is also a reasonable possibility. Therefore, the price reaction around 1.3570 will determine the next direction. The bullish scenario will strengthen if GBP/USD manages to break through and hold above 1.3570. Under such conditions, the market has the potential to enter a price discovery phase towards higher levels, as the major resistance on the current chart has been successfully surpassed. A more conservative technical strategy would be to wait for a possible retest of 1.3570 rather than chase the breakout, to see if the previous resistance has truly turned into support. If the retest is successful and a bullish response occurs, the probability of a continuation of the uptrend becomes more attractive. Conversely, a corrective scenario should be considered if GBP/USD fails to break through 1.3570 and forms a strong bearish rejection. The first decline could potentially take the price towards 1.3496. As long as 1.3496 remains strong, the correction can still be considered a pullback within the bullish trend. If 1.3496 is broken, the next pressure could lead to the 100-day moving average (MA) around 1.3470–1.3480. A breakout of the 100-day moving average (MA) could then open up room towards 1.3398. If the price manages to convincingly break through the 200-day moving average (MA) and the 1.3398 support level, the bullish H4 chart will begin to lose its validity, and attention should shift to 1.3331 as the next support level. Thus, the current GBP/USD condition on the H4 timeframe remains bullish. The price is above the 100- and 200-day moving averages, the 100-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average, and both moving averages are trending upward. The price structure also continues to trend higher highs and higher lows. Key resistance is at 1.3570, while the nearest key support is located at 1.3496, followed by the 1.3398, 1.3331, 1.3267, 1.3211, and 1.3139 areas. The confluence between the 100-day moving average and the 1.3496 support area makes this area a key area of concern should a correction occur.
