GBP/USD Timeframe Daily: Based on the GBP/USD daily chart, the current price movement shows a strengthening bullish structure after undergoing a consolidation and recovery phase since mid-June. The latest price is around 1.3604, having previously broken through several important horizontal resistance levels. The overall market structure suggests that buyers remain in control, particularly as the price is above the 100- and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows since its low around 1.3139 in mid-June. However, the price's current approach to key resistance puts GBP/USD in an area that requires greater attention, as the potential for profit-taking or a correction is also increasing. In the early stages of the chart, GBP/USD was seen moving in relatively volatile conditions, with several changes in direction. The price experienced selling pressure, reaching the 1.3220–1.3230 area in late March before experiencing a strong recovery in April. This increase took the price to the 1.3570–1.3600 area in late April and early May. However, the price failed to maintain its bullish momentum and experienced a sharp decline in mid-May. This selling pressure pushed GBP/USD back towards the 1.3331 area and then continued until it reached key support around 1.3211 in mid-June. From there, the market structure began to change significantly. The area around 1.3139 became a key low point visible on the chart. After reaching this area, selling pressure began to lose strength, and buyers gradually took control. The price then formed a recovery pattern with higher lows and higher highs. The upward movement was initially restrained by the 100- and 200-day moving averages, but from late June to early July, the price began to break through these two moving averages. The breakout of the 100- and 200-day moving averages was a significant technical development, as both indicators had previously acted as dynamic resistance. After the price managed to stay above these two lines, the blue 100-day moving average began to rise, providing support for the bullish trend. The red 200-day moving average also showed positive developments. Although its slope was not as steep as the 100-day moving average, it began to flatten out and then slightly climb after previously being relatively flat. The consistent price position above the 200-day moving average (MA) reinforces the perspective that the GBP/USD's primary trend has shifted to a more constructive one. In the context of trend analysis, the combination of price above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 100-day moving average (MA) above or approaching a bullish position relative to the 200-day moving average (MA), signals that buyers have the upper hand in the medium to long term.
In terms of horizontal resistance, the 1.3570 area is a crucial level. The chart shows that the price interacted with this area several times before finally breaking through. After the breakout, GBP/USD moved towards the 1.3604 area and even briefly reached around 1.3620. This indicates a clear increase in bullish momentum. However, the next resistance levels are around 1.3652 and 1.3665. The 1.3652 area is a crucial horizontal resistance level because it is close to the peak of the previous movement. Meanwhile, 1.3665 serves as a higher resistance level on the chart. If GBP/USD is able to break through the 1.3652–1.3665 zone with a convincing daily closing, the breakout could confirm the continuation of the bullish trend towards higher levels. The condition of the most recent candle is also worth noting. The price appears to have made a strong surge from the 1.3540 area towards around 1.3620, but then experienced a slight retracement and closed around 1.3604. This indicates that buyers remain dominant, but sellers begin to respond when the price enters the resistance zone. As long as the next daily candlestick maintains a position above 1.3570, this can still be categorized as a healthy pullback after the breakout. Conversely, if the price falls back below 1.3570 and closes below it, the validity of the previous breakout needs to be retested. The nearest support is currently located in the 1.3570 area. This level previously functioned as resistance, and once broken, it has the potential to shift to support. The concept of resistance transitioning to support is crucial in understanding the current GBP/USD structure. As long as the price remains above 1.3570, the bullish bias remains relatively strong. If a correction occurs towards this area followed by a bullish rejection, this could indicate that buyers are still in control and attempting to continue the uptrend. Below 1.3570 lies the next support level around 1.3517. This level is a crucial zone because it represents a consolidation area before the latest uptrend. If GBP/USD experiences a deeper correction, the 1.3517 area could be an interesting point to observe the buyer response. Next are the 1.3473 and 1.3434 areas. These two levels represent horizontal support levels that could potentially become resistance zones if the correction deepens. Interestingly, the 100-day moving average (MA) is also located around the 1.3430–1.3440 area, making the 1.3434 level even more technically significant. The combination of horizontal support and the 100-day moving average (MA) could make this area both dynamic and horizontal support. If the price falls below 1.3434, the next focus could be on the 1.3331 area. This level represents clear support on the chart structure and serves as a crucial boundary between the current bullish phase and a potential deeper correction. A decline below 1.3331 would begin to weaken the bullish structure, as the price would re-enter the area that previously served as a consolidation base. Below this level are support levels at 1.3267 and 1.3211. Meanwhile, the 1.3139 area served as major support and a key low point in mid-June. As long as the price remains well above 1.3139, the medium-term recovery structure for GBP/USD remains positive. Looking at the price structure since mid-June, the bullish development appears quite consistent. From a low of around 1.3139, the price moved towards 1.3211, then broke through 1.3267, 1.3331, 1.3434, 1.3473, and 1.3517, finally reaching 1.3570 and the 1.3600 area. This sequence indicates that buyers have successfully taken control of more price levels. Each breakout of the previous resistance level is followed by the formation of a higher low, solidifying the bullish structure. As long as the pattern remains intact, a more appropriate approach is to view the correction as part of the uptrend formation process, rather than immediately considering it a bearish reversal. In a bullish scenario, the 1.3570 level is a crucial area to maintain. If the price pulls back but manages to hold above this level, then breaks through 1.3620 again, the opportunity to move towards 1.3652–1.3665 will increase. A valid breakout above 1.3665 could signal that GBP/USD is entering a further bullish phase. Conversely, if the price fails to hold 1.3570 and then falls below 1.3517, the short-term bullish momentum will begin to weaken. A further decline towards 1.3473–1.3434 would indicate a deeper market correction and retest the strength of the 100-day moving average (MA). Overall, the 100-day and 200-day moving average (MA) indicators currently favor a bullish scenario. The price is above both moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) is trending upward, while the 200-day moving average (MA) is losing its bearish character. The price structure also shows a clearer series of higher highs and higher lows. Therefore, the main pressure now is no longer coming from the bearish trend, but rather from buyers' ability to break through the major resistance around 1.3652–1.3665.
