FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold pulled back from its highest levels since early June during Thursday's Asian trading, giving back some of the previous session's explosive three percent gain. The hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes released Wednesday, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, helped slow the dollar's slide triggered by falling U.S. bond yields, and that shift is now weighing on the precious metal. The minutes from the July 28-29 Fed meeting made clear that officials are prepared to raise rates again unless more headway is made on bringing inflation down. Recent U.S. data shows monthly price gains have been modest, but inflation remains well above the central bank's two percent target. On top of that, investors are still nervous that higher energy costs tied to the Middle East crisis could reignite price pressures, leaving the market still pricing in at least one more Fed rate hike for 2026. The standoff between Washington and Tehran is also lending support to the safe-haven dollar, which naturally works against non-yielding gold. In the latest twist, President Trump said the U.S. is preparing to hit Iran with the most severe economic action yet and warned that any country helping Tehran dodge sanctions or doing business with it will face serious financial penalties. That comes as both sides remain deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the war risk premium alive. Still, the drop in U.S. bond yields should keep dollar bulls from getting too aggressive, so traders need to be careful before calling a short-term top in gold. The Treasury Department stepped in to calm the bond market on Wednesday, announcing it will at least double the size of its long-term repurchase operations starting in September, which sent the 30-year yield tumbling from its highest level since June 2007. TD Securities noted that the Treasury's decision to scale up liquidity-backed buybacks has breathed fresh life into metals, with the expanded program helping to renew interest in gold and other precious metals. Looking ahead, traders are watching Thursday's U.S. data, including the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and weekly jobless claims, along with speeches from key FOMC members and any fresh geopolitical headlines.

Gold is currently trading around the $4,490 mark, with the moving average setup across multiple timeframes painting a clearly bullish picture that supports the metal's longer-term uptrend, even as the short-term chart shows some hesitation. On the hourly chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average sits at $4,411, resting below the current price and acting as the nearest dynamic support cushion, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average is positioned at $4,387, providing a deeper structural floor that has been reclaimed during the recent surge. The 50 SMA holding above the 200 SMA keeps a golden cross formation intact on the hourly timeframe, signaling that near-term bullish momentum is still in place despite the pullback. Zooming out to the four-hour chart, the 50-period Simple Moving Average rests at $4,400, while the 200-period Simple Moving Average sits much lower at $4,168, both positioned well below the current price and climbing in the same direction, reinforcing the bullish medium-term structure. The wide gap between the four-hour SMAs, with the shorter average trading far above the longer one, confirms that the uptrend is firmly entrenched. Looking at the horizontal levels that exist separately from the moving averages, the first resistance barrier sits at $4,520, followed by the $4,550 area and the $4,580 zone, with a tougher supply area at $4,600 and the ultimate near-term target resting at $4,650. On the support side, the first floor is at the $4,450 psychological level, which has held so far during this pullback, followed by the $4,411 hourly 50 SMA and the $4,400 four-hour 50 SMA. Below that, the next cushions are at $4,387, matching the hourly 200 SMA, then $4,350 and the $4,300 round-number support, with the four-hour 200 SMA at $4,168 acting as the ultimate structural floor. A daily close above $4,520 would likely trigger a fresh wave of buying interest toward $4,600, while a break below $4,400 would signal a deeper correction toward the lower supports. For now, the bullish structure remains intact, but traders should watch the $4,400 to $4,411 zone closely as the first real test for buyers.