USD/JPY H4 Timeframe: The USD/JPY currency pair's movement on the H4 timeframe shows a significant change in price structure after previously being in a bullish phase and successfully moving to the 163.00–164.00 area. Based on the available chart, strong selling pressure emerged in late July and pushed the price sharply down to the 155.00 area. This decline was a significant turning point because the price not only formed a normal correction but also broke through the 100 and 200 Moving Averages, which had previously been below the price movement. Thus, the technical structure of USD/JPY on the H4 chart has shifted from a bullish to a bearish phase, although in the short term, recovery efforts are visible. The 100-day moving average ( MA), shown with the blue line, is currently around 159.50, while the 200-day moving average (MA), shown with the red line, is higher, at around 160.20–160.30. The 100-day moving average (MA) position below the 200-day moving average (MA) indicates that bearish pressure still dominates the intermediate trend structure. Furthermore, the latest price, around 159.09, is still moving below both moving averages. This indicates that the price increase following the rebound from the 155.00 area is not yet strong enough to shift the bearish structure to a bullish one. Prior to the sharp decline, the price had been stable above the 100- and 200-day moving averages. In fact, the 100-day moving average was above the 200-day moving average, and both trended upward, confirming the dominance of the uptrend. However, a change occurred when the price experienced very aggressive selling pressure and broke through both moving averages. This breakout signaled that the previous buying momentum had lost strength. After the price fell below both moving averages, the 100-day moving average began to turn downward with a sharper slope, while the 200-day moving average remained relatively gentle. This difference in character indicates that medium-term bearish pressure is developing, while the 200-day moving average still reflects the influence of the previously established uptrend. Currently, the 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average areas have the potential to act as dynamic resistance. Any price increase towards the 159.50 to 160.30 zone requires attention, as this area represents the intersection of horizontal resistance and dynamic resistance of the two moving averages. If the price rises again but fails to consistently break through this zone, this could indicate that the recovery is merely corrective and that further selling pressure remains possible. Conversely, if USD/JPY manages to make a strong breakout above the 100-day moving average (MA), then continues rising until it breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA), the bearish pressure could gradually ease.
In terms of horizontal support and resistance, the 159.09 level is a crucial area due to its proximity to the current price level. This area was previously a fairly active trading zone and now serves as a key determinant of short-term movement direction. If the price can stay above 159.09 and form a higher low structure, the opportunity for an increase towards the 100-day moving average (MA) around 159.50 will increase. However, because the price is still below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MA), the increase should still be viewed as a recovery move until a clear breakout occurs. The next resistance level is seen at 160.85. This level is quite strong horizontal resistance and is above the 200-day moving average (MA). If the price manages to break through the 159.50–160.30 zone, 160.85 will become the next upside target. A breakout above 160.85 could open the opportunity for a more positive structural change as the price begins to re-enter the trading area before a major decline occurs. After that, the next resistance levels are at 161.62 and 162.97. The 162.97 area is important because it previously served as a support zone during the bullish phase, but after a sharp decline, it has the potential to become major resistance. Meanwhile, the 163.99 level is the top resistance level on the chart and marks the peak of the previous movement. In terms of support, the 158.03 level is the first area to watch if USD/JPY experiences selling pressure again. The chart shows that the price rebounded after approaching this area, so the 158.03 level could serve as short-term support. If the price fails to maintain the 159.09 area and then breaks through 158.03, bearish pressure could increase again. A subsequent decline could take the price towards the 156.71 support area. This area is important support because it previously served as a rebound zone after a sharp decline. Stronger support is at 155.52. This level is the lowest level seen after the aggressive decline from the 163.00 area. As long as the price remains above 155.52, there is still a chance for a consolidation and recovery phase. However, if this support is broken, the bearish structure will strengthen again, opening the possibility of a deeper decline. Therefore, the 155.52 area can be seen as a crucial boundary between the potential for a price base and the continuation of the bearish trend. Overall, the USD/JPY is currently in a recovery phase after experiencing sharp selling pressure. The price has managed to move away from its low of around 155.52 and move back towards the 159.00 area, but this recovery has not been able to bring the price back above the 100- and 200-day moving averages. This condition makes the H4 technical structure still tend to be bearish to neutral. Technical insights from external sources also indicate that moving averages can provide different signals depending on the timeframe and observation period, so reading the structure directly on the chart remains important to identify relevant dynamic areas.
