FX.co ★ GBP/USD

The price behavior of GBP/USD across macro and intraday timeframes points to a clear structural shift, transitioning from the multi-month corrective decline seen earlier this year into a confirmed bullish markup phase. On the daily timeframe, the initial base-building phase took shape following the mid-June exhaustion low at 1.3125. The subsequent formation of a higher low near 1.3255 in late June, followed by an aggressive expansion above the 1.3550 intermediate high in July, formally signaled the end of seller dominance. This trend reversal was reinforced as the short-term simple moving averages crossed above the longer-term averages, with price action continuously riding the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands while the bands themselves expanded, confirming sustained upward momentum. Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, the recent rally from the early August base at 1.3400 toward current multi-month highs exhibits a clean 5-wave structural advance. The breakout on August 19—marked by an expansive bullish marubozu candle taking price from 1.3530 to 1.3598—reflected heavy institutional demand rather than a temporary short squeeze. This momentum move carried GBP/USD up to test major horizontal resistance at 1.3638–1.3643 on August 21, aligning directly with the April swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline from 1.3700 down to 1.3125. Over recent sessions, intraday price action has coiled directly beneath this 1.3638 barrier. The emergence of small-bodied consolidation candles with tight upper and lower rejection wicks signals order accumulation rather than distribution, while the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart provide dynamic structural support alongside a squeezing Bollinger Band profile. Looking ahead, a decisive daily close above the 1.3638 resistance ceiling would confirm a multi-month range breakout, opening the pathway toward 1.3700 and upper expansion targets around 1.3750 to 1.3780. On the downside, the 1.3550–1.3570 area serves as the primary dynamic support zone, with secondary order block support positioned at the 1.3480 breakout origin. As long as GBP/USD holds above the key daily higher-low invalidation level at 1.3320, the overarching market structure remains firmly bullish.