EUR/CHF Timeframe H4: Based on the EUR/CHF chart on the H4 timeframe, the current price is hovering around 0.9384. Overall, the EUR/CHF movement structure still shows a bullish trend, although the price is currently in a consolidation phase after experiencing a fairly strong increase throughout the period shown on the chart. The movement since early July has shown a gradual formation of higher highs and higher lows. The price moved up from the 0.9180 area to near 0.9410 in mid-August, then experienced a sharp correction, before recovering and approaching the 0.9409 resistance level. This condition indicates that buyers still have considerable influence on the H4 structure, but the upper resistance area is starting to exert pressure on the rise. From the perspective of the 100-day moving average (MA), the blue line can be seen around the 0.9370–0.9375 area at the end of the chart. The 100-day moving average (MA) is still sloping upward, although its increase has begun to slow down compared to the previous period. The current price position above the 100-day moving average (MA) indicates that medium-term bullish momentum is still relatively well maintained. The 100-day moving average (MA) also has the potential to act as dynamic support in the event of a correction. As long as the price remains above this line, the decline can still be viewed as a pullback within a bullish structure, rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (MA), shown with the red line, is located much lower, around the 0.9330 area at the end of the chart. The 200-day moving average (MA) also appears to have a positive slope. The 100-day moving average (MA) position above the 200-day moving average (MA) is an important indication that the EUR/CHF intermediate trend structure remains bullish. The distance between the two moving averages also indicates that the uptrend has gained considerable momentum. As long as the 100-day moving average (MA) does not cross the 200-day moving average (MA) from top to bottom, the bullish structure remains dominant. Regarding horizontal resistance levels, the primary focus is on 0.9409. This is the highest resistance level shown on the chart and serves as a crucial boundary for the continuation of the bullish trend. The price has repeatedly moved close to the 0.9400–0.9409 area but has not yet been able to produce a convincing breakout. Therefore, 0.9409 can be considered major resistance within the current H4 structure. If the price breaks through 0.9409 and the H4 candle closes convincingly above it, this could signal a bullish continuation. The breakout will be stronger if the price then retests 0.9409 and establishes it as new support. However, there is one caveat. Around August 19th, EUR/CHF experienced a sharp decline from the 0.9390s to around 0.9305. This decline temporarily broke through the 100-day moving average (MA), but it subsequently found strong support around 0.9305 and successfully recovered. This indicates that sellers did aggressively take control, but were unable to permanently alter the trend structure. A rebound from 0.9305 then brought the price back above the 100-day moving average (MA). This movement can be seen as evidence that this support area has significant technical significance.
Before testing 0.9409, the 0.9384 area is also important. This level is close to the current price level and could act as both resistance and short-term support depending on the direction of the breakout. If the price is able to maintain its position above 0.9384, buyers have a greater opportunity to push the price towards 0.9409. Conversely, if the price falls again and fails to hold above 0.9384, corrective pressure could increase towards the 100-day moving average (MA) If a correction occurs, the 100-day moving average (MA) around 0.9370–0.9375 will be the first dynamic support area to watch. This area has strong technical value because it is not only a moving average but also close to the most recent price consolidation area. A bullish reaction around the 100-day moving average (MA) will maintain the upward trend. Conversely, if the price breaks through the 100-day moving average (MA) with a strong H4 candle, attention should then shift to the horizontal support level at 0.9305. The 0.9305 level is a key support level and has proven effective in halting previous sharp declines. When the price fell towards this area on August 19th, buyers responded aggressively, triggering a recovery. Therefore, if EUR/CHF experiences another deep correction, 0.9305 is likely to be a key area. As long as this support level holds, the medium-term bullish structure remains solidly based. However, a breakout of 0.9305 would indicate a deepening correction and could alter perceptions of the H4 trend. Below 0.9305 lies the next support level at 0.9271. This level is a horizontal support level that was previously part of the consolidation structure and is relevant to price movements in late July. If 0.9305 fails to hold, 0.9271 could become the next correction target. A breakout of this level would open up room towards 0.9223, the next important support level. The 0.9223 area previously served as a foundation for price increases in early to mid-July, making it a potential demand zone if bearish pressure intensifies. The last major support level on the chart is around 0.9176. This level is well below the current price and represents the lower limit of the visible structure. As long as EUR/CHF remains well above 0.9176, the medium-term bullish trend cannot be considered broken. However, if the price experiences a sharp decline and breaks through this level, the bullish structure that has been forming since early July will be significantly damaged. Judging from the price action, the current condition of EUR/CHF is quite interesting because the price has returned to near its previous peak after recovering from a sharp decline. This situation could result in two main scenarios. The first scenario is a bullish continuation, where the price is able to stay above the 100-day moving average (MA), break through 0.9384, then test and break through 0.9409. The second scenario is a bearish rejection, where the price fails to break through 0.9409, then falls below 0.9384 and tests the 100-day moving average (MA). If the 100-day moving average (MA) is also broken, the correction could continue towards 0.9305. Directional confirmation will be stronger by considering the relationship between the price and the two moving averages. As long as the price remains above the 100-day moving average (MA) and the 100-day moving average (MA) remains above the 200-day moving average (MA), buyers retain a structural advantage. Conversely, if the price begins to remain below the 100-day moving average (MA) and then loses its bullish slope, the risk of a trend change increases. A bearish reversal will become more credible if the 100-day moving average (MA) eventually breaks through the 200-day moving average (MA).
