FX.co ★ GBP/USD

The GBPUSD directly benefiting from dollar weakness as market participants closely awaited key macroeconomic data. The market's focus was on catalysts due later in the day, including a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and the US jobs report for August, which was expected to inject fresh momentum into the foreign exchange market. This rise followed unexpectedly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's firm commitment to keeping inflation within its 2% target range and indicated that further increases in borrowing costs were still possible this year. While analysts at UOB noted that Warsh's hawkish stance highlighted the growing risk of monetary policy tightening, they also cautioned that this might ultimately be mere rhetoric rather than actual policy action. Domestically, Catherine Mann, the Bank of England's chief monetary policy officer, recently confirmed that the UK economy has shown encouraging growth momentum since the last monetary policy meeting, primarily due to a stable labor market and slightly higher-than-expected inflationary pressures. Despite these domestic indicators, financial markets suggest that while the market widely anticipates a comprehensive interest rate hike by the Bank of England before the end of the year, investors currently perceive a 15% probability of a policy adjustment at the upcoming September meeting. Meanwhile, strategists at Scotiabank point out that the domestic political situation remains relatively calm, with market participants lacking immediate domestic catalysts. Despite the absence of new policy announcements and traders continuing to seek new directional indicators, the evolving political landscape since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister has boosted market sentiment and continues to support the overall resilience of the pound. Technically, the H4 chart shows that the GBP/USD pair is maintaining a slight short-term uptrend, holding above the 100-day simple moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential demand during corrections. However, with the spot price continuing to fluctuate below the middle Bollinger Band and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.8, indicating weak momentum rather than a firmly established trend, the upside potential remains limited. The immediate technical resistance lies near the middle Bollinger Band at 1.3550, while a larger resistance level is at the May 8 high of 1.3637, which buyers will need to break through if they want to breach the upper Bollinger Band near 1.3665. Conversely, protection against the downside relies primarily on a narrow demand zone supported by the 100-day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band (around 1.3440). A decisive break below this support zone is necessary to confirm a deeper correction and expose secondary support near the July 13 low at 1.3342.