FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold prices (XAU/USD) held steady around the $4,500 level during Friday's Asian trading session, ending a two-day winning streak that was buoyed by a slight recovery in the US dollar. Despite some minor pullbacks during the day, gold prices remained relatively close to the previous day's weekly high, as market participants cautiously positioned themselves ahead of the upcoming US monthly jobs report. The non-farm payrolls data is widely expected to provide key clues about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction, particularly given recent speculation surrounding a possible September rate hike. Analysis from TD Securities indicates that the jobs report remains the focus of the precious metals market, as investors grapple with hawkish comments from central bank officials and mounting pressure in the energy market. However, the overall institutional market outlook remains bullish, suggesting limited structural downside risks stemming from the continued dollar weakness and heightened uncertainty surrounding monetary tightening. Market sentiment shifted dramatically after Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller hinted that the Fed is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), barring any major surprises from upcoming inflation data. This statement triggered a sharp decline in both US Treasury yields and the US dollar, propelling gold prices to a strong rebound from a four-week low hit earlier this week. However, persistent inflation risks stemming from rising energy costs mean the possibility of future monetary tightening remains, helping the dollar index recover from a one-and-a-half-week low and limiting short-term gains in gold. Oil prices continue to hover near multi-month highs due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, particularly the strategic dispute in the Strait of Hormuz, with recent regional escalations boosting demand for safe-haven assets. This geopolitical risk premium not only supports oil prices but also enhances the appeal of the US dollar as a safe haven, making gold's short-term movements highly dependent on upcoming employment data. Technically, the four-hour chart shows a short-term uptrend for the precious metal, with prices consolidating above the 200-day simple moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 56, and the MACD is positive, indicating that the upward momentum is holding steady and not exceeding reasonable limits, as prices test the resistance level near $4,500. If this psychological level holds, prices could rally again to higher retracement levels around $4,540 and $4,609, while the $4,442 and $4,381 levels provide stable bearish support.