FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) rose more than 2% on Friday, surpassing $4,400 an ounce and trading around $4,487. This surge followed unexpectedly neutral comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller. Waller, who has previously taken a hawkish stance on high inflation, stated on Thursday that he would advocate for maintaining the benchmark interest rate at the Fed's September 16 policy meeting if upcoming deflationary data confirms continued low inflationary pressures. While Waller did not rule out a rate hike in the event of unexpectedly high inflation, his willingness to consider keeping rates unchanged significantly altered market expectations. This led the market to reduce the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase to approximately 54% and raise the probability of rates remaining unchanged to 46%. This shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, coupled with a generally weaker dollar—resulting from renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued speculation about Japanese intervention to defend the yen—has contributed to a sharp rise in the price of non-interest-bearing gold. Despite mixed economic data released on Thursday and a complex macroeconomic environment, downward pressure on the euro remains: initial jobless claims rose slightly to 206,000 in the week ending August 29, exceeding the previous forecast of 204,000, reflecting a decline in both layoffs and hiring in the labor market; while the Institute for Supply Management's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose.

However, in the services survey, the services price sub-index jumped sharply from 70.3 to 72.6, its highest level since August 2022, highlighting persistent input cost pressures that exacerbate the challenges of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Looking ahead, market participants are focused on the upcoming remarks from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammark and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for August, due on Friday. The market generally expects job growth to rebound to 56,000 in August after an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July, with the national unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Technically, the gold/US dollar (XAU/USD) price has sharply broken above its September 1 high of $4,461, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward, indicating increased buying volume. Should buyers push the price above the psychological level of $4,500, short-term resistance is expected near the 200-day simple moving average at $4,533, with medium-term targets near $4,600 and the August high of $4,697. Conversely, initial support lies at the psychological level of $4,400, with secondary protection against the decline at the 100-day moving average at $4,358, followed by the deeper demand zone at $4,300 and the 50-day moving average at $4,232.