Gold Daily Forecast Gold is trading sideways in the $4,470 area on Friday, after recovering from levels around $4,280. Over the past two days, the metal has risen considerably, but it has not built momentum or moved above the psychologically important $4,500 level. US Treasury yields have dropped as the chances of a September rate hike have been re-evaluated. Yet investors remain unwilling to bet against the US Dollar before the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is released, analysts at OCBC point out. Gold has risen more than 2% and is approaching $4,510, thanks to comments from Waller, who said the Fed will raise rates in September. The bank remains positive on the currency pair, though it warns that "the short-term direction will remain very sensitive to repricing risk from the Fed," and notes that NFP figures could affect yield changes and USD gains. "The upcoming CPI/PPI release may turn out to be much more conclusive as to whether the recent disinflation signals will cause the Fed to hold its rates steady." Gold is now trading at about $4,464 and has not been able to confirm a move above $4,470 (the low of August 2) in the previous support area. On the daily chart, momentum oscillators do not provide clear signals, especially since the RSI has not produced a positive breakout move away from the key 50 level. At the same time, the MACD is still in bearish territory. Although the downward pressure has lessened, it has not yet reversed. Investors looking to buy gold will have to overcome resistance at $4,470, $4,500 (a psychological figure), and, most significantly, the 200-day SMA at $4,534. This is a widely used technical indicator among Forex traders. Therefore, buyers must break through the $4,534 level. A drop below $4,534 would mean that the correction from the August $4,690 peak has come to an end. Furthermore, bearish pressure could find support at the $4,311 low reached on August 14 and at the $4,282 level observed this week. A possible reversal of the 200-day simple moving average below these levels would confirm a "Head and Shoulders" pattern. As a result, the yellow metal may face pressure and could fall to the $4,220 low seen on August 6 and to around $4,000, the level reached in late July.
