Gold prices found some buying support on Thursday after briefly slipping below the $4,400 mark, though the metal's upside remained constrained as traders chose to hold off on directional bets ahead of crucial US inflation data. The Producer Price Index is scheduled for release later on Thursday, with the Consumer Price Index following on Friday, and both reports are expected to deliver key clues about the Federal Reserve's policy path, influencing dollar dynamics and offering fresh momentum for the non-yielding precious metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently assigning roughly a 60% probability to a Fed rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, a bet that gathered pace after last Friday's stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. Persistent inflation risks tied to elevated energy prices have strengthened the case for immediate tightening, with crude oil touching a three-month high earlier in the session as US-Iran tensions continued to escalate. In the latest developments, Iran attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz following the US announcement that it had sunk five Iranian tankers off the Gulf of Oman and Khark Island. That escalation has deepened fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle East oil supplies, underpinning crude prices and reinforcing the argument for other major central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Traders have already fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike from the European Central Bank later today and from the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is also weighing a potential rate increase later this month. Meanwhile, Treasury yields stayed elevated after the Treasury Department revealed it would repurchase up to $6 billion in 10- to 20-year bonds, up from $2 billion previously but still below the $10 billion the market had expected.
Gold is currently trading near $4,408, positioned between key moving averages across both timeframes, a setup that signals the metal is sitting at a critical inflection point. On the hourly chart, the 50-period moving average is at $4,405, while the 200-period moving average rests at $4,355. Price is trading marginally above the 50-period average and comfortably above the 200-period average, suggesting that near-term momentum remains mildly constructive. The fact that price is holding above the 50-period average indicates buyers retain a modest edge, though the narrow margin suggests conviction is limited. The 50-period average is acting as immediate support, while the 200-period average provides a deeper safety net well beneath current levels. Stepping back to the four-hour chart, the 50-period moving average sits at $4,397, while the 200-period moving average is positioned slightly higher at $4,415. Price is trading just above the 50-period average but slightly below the 200-period average, a configuration that signals a market in transition. The 200-period average is acting as overhead resistance, and reclaiming that level would be an important step toward confirming a more sustained bullish bias. Resistance is spotted at $4,425, marking the session's peak and a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. Above that, the next supply band stretches from $4,450 to $4,465, followed by a heavier barrier at $4,485. If buyers manage to push through these levels, the market could advance toward $4,510 and $4,540. On the downside, the first support floor sits at $4,380, a level that has cushioned recent pullbacks. Losing that footing would open the door to $4,355, which aligns with the hourly 200-period moving average and represents a key support zone. Further down, $4,330 and $4,305 represent deeper demand pockets. Looking ahead, if gold holds above $4,380 and reclaims the four-hour 200-period moving average at $4,415, buyers may push the metal toward $4,425 and beyond. However, if selling pressure intensifies and price breaks below $4,380, a deeper pullback toward $4,355 and $4,330 becomes increasingly likely. The broader structure remains cautiously constructive as long as price holds above the hourly 200-period moving average, but near-term direction will hinge on whether buyers can overcome resistance at the four-hour 200-period average and how markets digest the upcoming PPI and CPI data.
