FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD. Hello everyone. The latest COT report for euro futures for September 8 has been released, and it requires very careful analysis because it mixes two powerful factors: the rolling of the futures contract and real changes in the positioning of major players. Let's start with open interest. It jumped by 77 052 contracts and reached 942 464. This is a colossal increase, but it must be noted immediately: most of this rise is technical, related to the roll from the September contract to the December one. The number of traders fell to 314, which confirms the technical nature of the move. Some of the data by participant groups is clearly incomplete, which is also a sign of a transition period. Now for the structure. Commercial participants (Commercial) sharply increased both long and short positions. Longs rose by 59 242 contracts, shorts by 43 785. But because the shorts were larger in absolute terms, their net position became short again and amounted to minus 6 730 contracts. This is a bearish signal, but with the caveat of the roll. Large speculators (Non-Commercial), on the contrary, reduced both long and short positions. Longs decreased by 4 968 contracts to 198 509, shorts were reduced by 12 723 contracts to 241 125. Their net short position decreased from 50 371 to 42 616 contracts. So speculators continue to cover their shorts, but still remain net short. In the extended report the picture is even more interesting. Dealers and intermediaries practically did not change their long and short positions, but sharply increased spreads by 32 300 contracts. Asset managers increased long positions by 16 189 contracts and shorts by 28 764, while reducing spreads by 14 731. Leveraged credit funds reduced both long and short positions, but at the same time sharply increased spreads by 37 235 contracts. This is a classic picture of a roll: big players are rolling via spreads and arbitrage rather than through outright directional bets. Now let's move on to the levels that currently define the whole picture. The options balance is at 1.15754. The upper boundary of the options range is 1.19329, the lower is 1.14476. The balance of the current futures contract is located in the zone 1.16172-1.16025. The long-term trend balance according to the COT data is in the range 1.15379-1.15257. What this means in practice. The price is currently trading around 1.16, i.e., inside the balance of the current futures contract 1.16172-1.16025. This is the key zone that determines the near-term direction. If the bulls can hold above 1.16172, the road will open to the upper boundary of the options range at 1.19329. If the price falls below 1.16025, the first target will be the options balance at 1.15754, and then the long-term COT balance 1.15379-1.15257. The lower options boundary 1.14476 remains a distant reference in case of a strong bearish move. Comparing this with the COT data, we get the following picture. Speculators are reducing their short positions, which is a bullish signal. Commercials increased short positions, which is a bearish signal. Dealers and leveraged funds are actively working through spreads, which indicates high uncertainty and preparation for a strong move. Open interest increased, but a significant part of this rise is a technical roll. Thus the market is at a point of equilibrium where none of the groups has a clear advantage. The key struggle is taking place around the 1.16172-1.16025 zone. As long as the price holds above the options balance of 1.15754, the bullish scenario remains viable. If the price settles below that level, pressure on the euro will increase, and the next targets will be the levels 1.15379-1.15257. The next COT report, when the data stabilizes after the roll, will show who really controls the market. For now we remain in observation mode and closely watch the price reaction at the key levels. Good luck everyone.