Market Structure Shift Looking at this weekly EURUSD chart from April 2025 to September 2026, price printed a clear high at 1.20745 around January 2026. From that peak, price began a sustained downtrend, making a sequence of lower highs (1.20745 → 1.19410 → 1.18075 → 1.16740) and lower lows, eventually reaching a low of 1.14070 around June 2026. In Smart Money Concepts, this consistent failure to make a new higher high combined with continuous lower lows confirms a Market Structure Shift from bullish to bearish on the weekly timeframe. Institutional order flow has transitioned from accumulation to aggressive distribution. However, after the low at 1.14070, price rallied back up to 1.16740, breaking above the previous swing high of 1.15405. This rally suggests that smart money may be stepping back in to buy, potentially forming a higher low. The most recent weekly close at 1.15969 shows a retracement back down, but the structure is now at a critical decision point.
Liquidity Grab and Order Block The high at 1.20745 likely functioned as a liquidity sweep. Smart money deliberately pushed price just above a previous swing high (likely near 1.20000) to trigger buy‑stop orders from breakout traders and stop‑losses from early shorts, providing liquidity for institutional sell orders. Once those orders were filled, price reversed downward. The zone between roughly 1.18075 and 1.20745 represents the last bullish impulse area before the drop. This zone is now identified as a Bearish Order Block on the weekly chart. Notice that after the initial decline to around 1.14070, price attempted a retracement toward 1.16740, which acted as resistance, confirming that the order block is still active. The low at 1.14070 also functioned as a liquidity sweep to the downside, triggering sell‑stops before the recent bounce. The zone between 1.14070 and 1.15405 now appears to be a Bullish Order Block.
Displacement and Fair Value Gap The downward move from 1.20745 down to 1.14070 occurred with aggressive bearish candles showing strong displacement on the weekly timeframe. The large black candles with small wicks confirm that selling pressure is institutional and sustained. The total drop of approximately 667 pips over about five months shows strong bearish control. Along this descent, price likely left behind several Fair Value Gaps, particularly in the areas of 1.16740 to 1.18075 and 1.15405 to 1.16740, where candles moved too quickly for balanced trading. These gaps act as magnets for potential retracements. The recent bounce from 1.14070 back to 1.16740 was also strong bullish displacement, confirming that buyers are defending the lower zone. The current price at 1.15969 is sitting inside the lower Fair Value Gap, which explains the consolidation.
Current Outlook As of September 2026, price is at 1.15969, retracing downward into the Fair Value Gap (1.15405–1.16740) and approaching the Bullish Order Block (1.14070–1.15405). In SMC, this is a critical decision zone. If price holds above 1.14070 and shows rejection (bullish pin bar or engulfing candle on the weekly), smart money will likely resume buying to target fresh highs above 1.16740, likely toward 1.18075 or even 1.19410. However, if price breaks below 1.14070 with strong bearish displacement, the bearish structure would continue, targeting 1.12735 or lower. The invalidation level for the bullish bias is a weekly close below 1.14070. Do not chase the current price – wait for confirmation at the Bullish Order Block and then trade with the institutional trend.
