FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD. Greetings to everyone. The fresh COT report on euro futures for September 8 has been released, and it requires very careful analysis because it mixes two powerful factors: a rollover of the futures contract and real changes in the positioning of major players. Let's start with open interest. It jumped by 77 052 contracts and reached 942 464. This is a colossal increase, but it should be noted immediately: most of this growth is technical, related to the rollover from the September contract to the December contract. The number of traders decreased to 314, which confirms the technical nature of the movement. Some of the data by participant groups is clearly incomplete, and this is also a sign of a transitional period. Now about the structure. Commercial participants Commercial sharply increased both long and short positions. Longs rose by 59 242 contracts, shorts by 43 785. But since shorts were larger in absolute terms, their net position turned short again and amounted to minus 6 730 contracts. This is a bearish signal, but with the caveat of the rollover. Large speculators Non-Commercial, on the contrary, reduced both long and short positions. Longs decreased by 4 968 contracts to 198 509, shorts fell by 12 723 contracts to 241 125. Their net short position narrowed from 50 371 to 42 616 contracts. So speculators continue to cover their shorts, but still remain net short. In the extended report the picture is even more interesting. Dealers and intermediaries practically did not change long and short positions, but sharply increased spreads by 32 300 contracts. Asset managers increased long positions by 16 189 contracts and shorts by 28 764, while reducing spreads by 14 731. Leveraged credit funds cut both long and short positions, but at the same time sharply increased spreads by 37 235 contracts. This is a classic picture of a rollover: large players roll through spreads and arbitrage, not through pure directional bets. Now let's move on to the levels that currently define the whole picture. The option balance is at 1.15754. The upper bound of the option range is 1.19329, the lower is 1.14476. The balance of the current futures contract is located in the zone 1.16172-1.16025. The long-term trend balance according to COT is in the range 1.15379-1.15257. What this means in practice. The price is currently trading around 1.16, i.e., inside the balance of the current futures contract 1.16172-1.16025. This is the key zone that determines the near-term direction. If bulls can establish themselves above 1.16172, the road to the upper bound of the option range 1.19329 will open. If the price falls below 1.16025, the first target will be the option balance 1.15754, and then the long-term COT balance 1.15379-1.15257. The lower option boundary 1.14476 remains a distant reference in case of a strong bearish move. Comparing this with the COT data, we get the following picture. Speculators are reducing their short positions, which is a bullish signal. Commercials increased short positions, which is a bearish signal. Dealers and leveraged funds are actively working through spreads, which indicates high uncertainty and preparation for a strong move. Open interest rose, but a significant part of this increase is a technical rollover. Thus, the market is at a point of equilibrium where none of the groups has a clear advantage. The key battle is around the zone 1.16172-1.16025. As long as the price stays above the option balance 1.15754, the bullish scenario remains viable. If the price settles below that level, pressure on the euro will increase, and the next targets will be the levels 1.15379-1.15257. The next COT report, once the data settles after the rollover, will show who really controls the market. For now we remain in observation mode and closely watch the price reaction at the key levels. Good luck to everyone.