EUR/GBP Timeframe H4 
Based on the EUR/GBP H4 chart, the current price action shows a correction phase after a fairly strong advance. The price structure from mid-July to early September still actually shows a bullish tendency, marked by the formation of a series of higher lows and higher highs. However, entering mid-September, the price experienced significant selling pressure and fell back to an important support area. This condition puts EUR/GBP at a fairly interesting point because the market is testing whether the previous uptrend can still be maintained or is starting to turn bearish. The chart shows two main moving averages, namely the MA 100 in blue and the MA 200 in red. In general, the positions of these two MAs indicate that the medium-term trend structure is still relatively positive. The MA 100 has been moving upward and for several periods was above the MA 200. This indicates that price momentum in the medium term is still stronger compared to its long-term average. In addition, the MA 200 which previously tended to be flat is beginning to show an upward slope. That combination is an indication that the bullish trend has not completely lost its foundation. Nevertheless, the price position relative to both moving averages needs to be watched more carefully. After reaching the area around 0,8600–0,8605, the price experienced a rejection and then dropped quite sharply. That decline pushed the price through the MA 100 from above to below. This is a signal that medium-term bullish momentum is weakening. Currently the price appears to be around 0,8560, while the MA 100 is slightly above price and the MA 200 is also in the 0,8570s area. Thus, these two MAs now have the potential to act as dynamic resistance. If the price fails to convincingly reclaim the MA 100 and MA 200, bearish pressure could continue. Conversely, if the price manages to get back above both moving averages and produces a strong H4 candle, the recent decline can be considered a correction within the uptrend, not a permanent trend change. From the horizontal support and resistance perspective, the chart shows several important levels worth noting. The nearest resistance is around 0,8569–0,8570. This area is interesting because it is close to the MA 200 and was previously also an area of price activity. As long as EUR/GBP remains below that region, sellers have a short-term technical advantage. If there is a rebound toward 0,8569–0,8570 and the price is then rejected again, the likelihood of forming a lower high will increase and could become additional confirmation for the bearish scenario. The next resistance is around 0,8585–0,8586. This level is a fairly clear horizontal area on the chart and previously served as an upper boundary of price movement. A breakout of that resistance would be a positive development for buyers because it would show that the price has reclaimed an area that was previously supply. If the 0,8585–0,8586 level is broken with a solid H4 candle and then confirmed through a retest, the chances of the price retesting the 0,8600–0,8605 area will increase. The 0,8600–0,8605 area itself is the main resistance. In early September, the price once moved up toward that region and even spiked higher before consolidating and reversing. This means there is fairly strong supply around that area. If the price reaches that region again, sellers are likely to respond. A valid break of 0,8605 would be a much stronger bullish signal and open the way toward the next psychological resistance around 0,8610–0,8612. On the downside, 0,8553–0,8554 is the nearest support and is currently a very important level. The price appears to have rebounded after reaching that region. The buyers’ reaction in this area shows that there is still demand capable of halting the decline. As long as that support holds, the possibility of a technical rebound remains open. However, if an H4 candle is able to close decisively below 0,8553, the short-term structure will become more bearish. If 0,8553 is broken, attention can next be directed to the 0,8532–0,8533 area. This level is a horizontal support that is quite clear from the previous price structure. That area was once a consolidation point and several times was where the price paused or reversed. Therefore, if EUR/GBP breaks 0,8553, the 0,8532–0,8533 area has the potential to be the next correction target. Lower supports are around 0,8505, then 0,8483, while the next extreme area is around 0,8459–0,8460. Those levels are more relevant if selling pressure develops into a larger trend change. As long as the price has not broken those supports, the decline can still be categorized as a correction to the uptrend formed since July. Looking at the overall chart structure, there is an interesting divergence between the medium-term trend and short-term momentum. The medium-term trend still has a bullish character because the MA 100 is above the MA 200 and both previously moved upward. However, short-term momentum has turned bearish after the price fell from the 0,8600 area and broke the MA 100. Therefore, the current condition is more accurately described as a bullish trend undergoing a bearish correction, with the risk of a trend change if key supports fail to hold. In a bullish scenario, the price needs to hold the 0,8553–0,8554 area, then form a higher low on the H4 timeframe. After that, stronger confirmation would appear if the price can re-break 0,8569–0,8570. Breaking those MA 100 and MA 200 levels would reduce bearish pressure and open space toward 0,8585–0,8586. If that resistance is overcome, the next target is 0,8600–0,8605. In other words, buyers need a series of confirmations, not just a single bullish candle, to restore the up structure. Meanwhile, the bearish scenario becomes stronger if the price fails to hold 0,8553. An H4 close below that support would indicate that demand is starting to lose control. In that condition, the 0,8532–0,8533 area becomes the next correction target. If that support is also broken, the downside potential could develop toward 0,8505. The bearish scenario becomes more valid if the MA 100 continues to decline and eventually approaches or breaks the MA 200 from above to below.
Conclusion: overall, EUR/GBP H4 is currently in a neutral to slightly bearish condition for the short term, but the medium-term trend structure has not fully turned bearish. The MA 100 and MA 200 form an important dynamic resistance area around 0,8570, while the 0,8553–0,8554 support is the key level that will determine the next direction. As long as that support holds, the chance of a rebound toward 0,8569–0,8570 and then 0,8585–0,8586 remains open. Conversely, a valid break below 0,8553 will increase the probability of a decline toward 0,8532–0,8533 and potentially continue to 0,8505. Therefore, the 0,8553 support and 0,8570 dynamic resistance levels are the two most important areas to watch before determining the next bias.
