FX.co ★ EUR/USD

EURUSD is currently trading at 1.14862 on the hourly timeframe, and the overall structure reveals a market that has experienced a dramatic shift in momentum, transitioning from a strong uptrend in mid-August to a sustained and aggressive downtrend that has dominated the past two weeks. The pair rallied to a peak near 1.17280 in mid-August, but since then it has declined relentlessly, breaking through multiple support levels including 1.17000, 1.16720, 1.16440, 1.16160, 1.15880, 1.15600, and 1.15320, before finding temporary support near the 1.14480 zone. This recent decline has been particularly sharp, with a significant bearish candle breaking through the 1.15320 level and pushing price down to the 1.14480 area before a modest bounce brought it back to the current 1.14862 level. From a technical perspective, the red moving average line, which had been acting as dynamic support during the August rally, has been decisively broken to the downside and is now sloping sharply lower, confirming the bearish shift in momentum. Price is trading well below this indicator, which is now positioned near the 1.15320 level, acting as dynamic resistance. The 1.14862 level, marked by the horizontal red line, has now transitioned from a significant support zone into a critical pivot point that could determine the next major directional move. The recent price action shows a sharp bearish candle that broke below the 1.15000 level before finding support near 1.14480, and the fact that price has bounced back to the 1.14862 level suggests that buyers are attempting to establish a foothold. However, the overall trend structure remains bearish as long as price trades below the descending moving average. A break above 1.15320 with strong bullish candles would signal a short-term reversal and could trigger a recovery toward 1.15600 and potentially 1.15880, but given the prevailing bearish structure, such a move would likely face significant selling pressure at higher levels. On the downside, a break below 1.14480 with strong bearish candles would signal a continuation of the downtrend and open the door toward the next major support at 1.14000 and potentially 1.13500 if selling momentum intensifies.

For traders looking to position themselves, the most prudent approach is to look for shorting opportunities on rallies toward the 1.15320 or 1.15600 resistance zones, with stops placed above the nearest resistance to manage risk. A break below 1.14480 with strong bearish momentum could provide a confirmation signal for additional downside toward 1.14000 and potentially 1.13500 if selling pressure continues. Conversely, longs should only be considered if price can reclaim 1.15600 with conviction and show sustained buying momentum, as this would indicate that buyers are regaining control. The hourly timeframe provides a solid perspective for short-term trades, and with the trend clearly favoring sellers, patience and discipline are essential for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bearish momentum. Ultimately, the path of least resistance remains to the downside until a clear bottoming pattern emerges.