FX.co ★ XAU/USD, GOLD

The gold attempted a slight recovery from its weekly low of $4,244, briefly approaching $4,285, but remained trapped below key psychological and technical resistance levels. Despite profit-taking during the day, gold prices are on track for their worst weekly performance in a month, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the global bond market turmoil. Benchmark US Treasury yields continued their climb to multi-year highs—with 10-year and 30-year yields nearing record highs—primarily driven by inflation fears fueled by persistently high oil prices. These conditions have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making the overall macroeconomic outlook still favorable for dollar investors. Since the September interest rate hike, Federal Reserve policymakers have maintained a decidedly hawkish stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Michael Barr and regional branch heads, along with other officials, affirmed that the strength of the economy's resilience, robust labor market data, and persistent inflationary pressures (partly driven by structural demand trends, such as artificial intelligence exacerbating inflationary pressures) make the Fed inclined to maintain its tight monetary policy. Furthermore, statements indicating that core inflation remains well above the Fed's target have reinforced market expectations of further monetary tightening this year. While new diplomatic initiatives and efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased the rise in oil prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and remaining supply risks ensure continued strong demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. Technically, the pair is exhibiting a clear short-term bearish bias on the daily chart, with spot prices tightly constrained by a thick layer of moving average resistance. The asset's price continues to trade below its 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages, while momentum indicators (such as the 14-period RSI) hover in neutral to weak territory, showing no signs of oversold conditions. Immediate upside resistance is concentrated near the 100-day moving average and its subsequent moving averages, forming a strong barrier to further price gains. On the downside, the current price area is a key pivot point, and a break below the immediate support level could expose deeper support at the historical trendline. As the week draws to a close, market participants are closely watching upcoming US labor market reports, including the crucial non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, which will ultimately determine the direction of the dollar and precious metals.