AUDUSD H4 Technical Outlook The latest move in AUDUSD has changed the whole look of the four-hour chart. After spending weeks climbing steadily from the 0.6950 area and eventually reaching above 0.7200, the pair has now given back a large part of that advance. Price is currently around 0.7026, sitting almost directly on the 0.7020 level after a sharp series of bearish candles. What stands out to me is how quickly sellers took control once price failed around the 0.7140–0.7160 area. The market then slipped below the red 50-period moving average and continued lower toward the green 200-period moving average, which is now around 0.7140–0.7150 and has turned into overhead resistance rather than support. The current candle structure shows a small attempt to stabilize around 0.7020, but so far I don't see enough evidence to call this a confirmed reversal. The broader H4 structure is still under pressure because the recent decline has broken several short-term support areas that previously held the market during the August rally. The first important resistance is now around 0.7050–0.7060, followed by the 0.7085–0.7100 region where the 50-period SMA is positioned. Above that, 0.7115–0.7145 is a much heavier resistance zone because it combines previous price reactions, the moving-average structure and the upper part of the recent consolidation. On the downside, 0.7020 is the immediate support I am watching. If this level fails decisively, the next area comes around 0.6995–0.7000, followed by the stronger 0.6965–0.6970 zone. A break below 0.6965 would be important because it would put the pair back near the starting point of the previous major recovery and could open the door toward 0.6935 and potentially 0.6905. The Bollinger Bands are also telling an interesting story here. Price has been riding the lower band during the latest sell-off, which confirms that the downside move has had real momentum behind it rather than being a simple shallow correction. At the same time, the bands have expanded noticeably, showing that volatility has increased as sellers accelerated the decline. This kind of movement can sometimes produce a technical bounce, especially after several consecutive bearish candles, so I would not blindly sell directly into 0.7020. Instead, I would like to see whether price can recover toward 0.7050–0.7085 and then show another rejection. That would give the bearish structure a much cleaner confirmation. The momentum indicators are also mostly supporting the bearish side. RSI (14) is around 33, which puts momentum close to oversold territory but not quite below 30. This is important because there is still room for selling pressure to continue, although the distance from the oversold level means a short-term rebound can happen at any time. MACD is clearly negative, with the histogram remaining below the zero line and the MACD structure pointing to continued bearish pressure. The Stochastic oscillator, however, has started recovering from lower levels and is currently around 59.85 and 54.64, suggesting that the immediate downside momentum may be losing some strength. For me, this combination means the larger H4 bias remains bearish, but the entry should be handled carefully rather than chasing the current drop. My preferred trade idea is therefore to wait for a pullback into the 0.7050–0.7085 selling zone and look for bearish rejection before entering short. A more aggressive entry could come from a confirmed H4 break below 0.7020, but I would prefer the retest because it offers better risk control. The bearish targets would be 0.7000, 0.6970, and then 0.6935, with 0.6905 as an extended target if the selling pressure becomes strong. For the short setup, I would place the protective stop around 0.7115, above the nearby resistance structure. On the other side, if buyers manage to reclaim 0.7100 and especially break and hold above 0.7145, I would abandon the bearish idea because that would indicate that the current decline is losing its structural control. Overall, AUDUSD is sitting at a very important point after the aggressive rejection from the upper part of the recent range. The current price around 0.7026 is close to support, while RSI is approaching oversold and Stochastic is beginning to turn, so a bounce should not surprise me. Still, until price gets back above 0.7100–0.7145, I see the recovery attempts as corrective rather than a new bullish trend. The key levels for me are 0.7020 support, 0.7050–0.7085 immediate resistance, and 0.7100–0.7145 major resistance. A clean break below 0.7020 would favor continuation toward 0.6995–0.6970, while a strong reclaim of 0.7100 would force me to reassess the bearish setup. For now, I would rather sell a confirmed rejection from resistance than chase the pair at the current support.
