FX.co ★ #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $83,000 as of Wednesday, after failing to break above the key $85,000 level earlier in the week. The Crypto King's investors are cautious as US Treasury yields rise and key macroeconomic reports are due this week. Meanwhile, a K33 Research report says BTC has decent market structure, as the market did not fall despite heavy deleveraging in derivatives. Bitcoin bulls' sentiment is deteriorating, with BTC unable to rebound above the $85,000 resistance level since the beginning of the week. Cryptocurrency markets are struggling for the same reason affecting the broader market: rising US Treasury yields. In particular, the 5-year yield has crossed the 5% threshold, whereas the 10-year yield is above 5.2% and trading near 19-year highs. The rise in yields is pulling investors out of risk assets and putting the brakes on the Crypto King's upward momentum. Moreover, bulls are cautious about building long positions as important economic data is expected to be released this week. These include the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, scheduled for release on Wednesday, as well as Q2 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Traders will also monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday and the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement on Friday. In addition, speeches from various FOMC members will offer more hints about the future direction of US monetary policy. All these factors can move the US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, will impact BTC. According to a research report by K33 released on Tuesday, BTC has withstood a significant deleveraging move in the derivatives market without any price slumps, maintaining its technical structure in good shape. The report elaborated on how the BTC derivatives market experienced a systematic reset, with the Open Interest (OI) on CME and perpetual OI dropping by 49,028 BTC in the last week – the biggest weekly drop since October 2025. The move appears mainly driven by profit-taking, amid low spot trading volume despite the price rise, suggesting a lack of sell-side pressure. "Given that there is not much leverage left to cause forced liquidations and that people are unwilling to sell 33% below ATH, we see strong asymmetrical upside potential," the analyst added. Moreover, historical unwinds of orderliness have offered little in terms of directional cues, but they have always preceded times of low forward volatility as traders stay away from the market. However, structurally speaking, the market is in good shape, the report said. Aggregated OI is approaching 400K BTC, a level reached only twice in the last two years: from March 9 to April 10, 2025, and from February 15 to March 15, 2026, as the chart below shows. Both were consolidation periods, followed by positive BTC performance as traders went back to the market. "Given the very low level of leverage, the threat of an imminent squeeze is limited, a very convenient situation for a BTC trend which is in very good shape above its major moving averages," said the report. The BTC/USD price quote trades at $83,241 on Wednesday, having been unable to close above key resistance around $85,000. However, BTC continues trading above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, adding weight to a bullish short-term outlook. The RSI at 59 remains in the neutral-to-positive range, pointing to positive, though not overbought, momentum, while the MACD histogram turned negative, signaling fading buying pressure. Support levels are likely to be met initially at the 50-day EMA at $77,792, then at longer-term EMAs such as the 200-day EMA at $74,434 and the 100-day EMA at $74,303. Below that, more significant structural support levels are located at the already-mentioned horizontal levels of $66,500 and $62,300.